每日新闻更新 — 巴林和石油 The Daily Update – Bahrain and oil

巴林最近宣布在该王国临近西海岸的海域发现了高达800亿桶致密油的地质储量以及10-20万亿立方英尺的深层天然气。预计巴林石油探明储量为1.246亿桶。但是,鉴于还需要进一步的评估,油井还需要钻探,在决定这项资源储藏的多大比例能够成为可以用于商业开采之前还需要更多的信息,对待这个消息我们还需要谨慎。分析师和评论员已经对潜在的具有挑战性的地质情况、有可能导致低开采的因素和高生产成本表示出谨慎的态度。巴林官员希望,这些生产在5年内可以开始,因为它的地理位置离可以全面开采的领域很近。

显而易见,如果这个发现最终能够以一个规模相当的有商业价值的项目而出现的话,那将是件好事,因为石油价格下跌的环境损害了和石油有关的收入,巴林的经济自从2014年的年中以来就处于巨大的压力之下。(根据国际货币基金组织的估计,)巴林2018年财政盈亏平衡油价高达95.2美元/桶,其财政和日常收支目前处于赤字:穆迪估计,若采用60美元油价计算,巴林2018年财政赤字占其GDP的10.2%,其日常收支赤字为3%,

巴林的政府总债务水平跟海湾合作委员会同类国家的债务相比已经很高,2014年为GDP的44.4%,但(穆迪)预计,到2018年底的时候,该水平将达到GDP的90%以上。另外,从主权资产/财富基金和储备的角度来看,该王国处于较弱的地位:据报道,2月份其央行的外汇资产已下跌至16亿美元。尽管如此,人们还是期望,巴林将在必要时获得海湾合作委员会的支持:“以惠誉的观点,鉴于巴林有限的国土面积和战略上的重要性,在政治、财政或财政不稳定的极端情况下,海湾合作委员会将对其提供进一步的物质支持。人们对这种支持的期望支持了巴林的市场准入和跟美元的挂钩,尽管其外汇储备极低,估计在2017年年底的时候降到了日常对外开支的一个月的水平。”巴林上个月从伊斯兰债券募集了10亿美元。

巴林的信誉基本面的疲弱导致了评级下调;主权信用评级现在分别被穆迪/标准普尔/惠誉评为B1/B+/BB-。我们并不看好巴林,因为它的的基本面依然疲软,在我们的模型屏幕上显示不出什么吸引力。

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