每日新闻更新 —中国的无情的机会主义时期 The Daily Update - China’s relentless opportunistic streak

无论是在国际上还是在国内中国都存在着纠纷。中国力排不利因素利用机会尽可能迅速地在全球范围内积累它所能积累到的一切。中国已经把手指伸到了亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的馅饼上,现在似乎也在迅速地占有欧洲。根据彭博社发布的数据,按照购买力平价(PPP)计算,(该)全球最大的经济体在过去十年中已经获得并投资了总计3,180亿美元的欧洲资产; 如果以美元计算,(经济)活动比美国高出约45%。上述资产的范围从机场、海港和能源农场,直至足球球队,当然我们必须提到的是中国在该地区的基础设施项目和在欧洲科技领域的巨额投资。除了这些超乎想象的巨额交易之外,中国也接管了伦敦中心的大量场所,仅在英国就已拿下了价值700亿美元的交易。不管这种无情的机会主义时期是否不久就要结束,我们的观点是,和中国的人民币打交道变得越来越重要;要不然投资者有可能发现自己已经落伍了。

有趣的是,普华永道(PwC)使用国际货币基金组织(IMF)按照购买力平价计算方式基于2016年以来的国内生产总值(GDP)的数据对2050年的世界前景进行了自己的分析。根据其网站上发表的一篇文章,预计到2050年的时候中国将持续其全球最大经济体的地位,印度将超过美国排名第二,印度尼西亚排名第四,巴西也将排在前五。该文章强调,越南、菲律宾和尼日利亚将成为最大的跳跃者,比如说,上边说的前者(越南)预计将从第32位上升至第20位。这三个国家也被纳入吉姆·奥尼尔(Jim O'Neil)的“接下来的十一个(国家)”(缩写为 N-11)之中。目前我们并不支持对印度尼西亚和菲律宾(的投资),因为(这两个国家的)主权和准主权空间的相对价值(如果有的话)非常有限,越南和尼日利亚的评级为次级投资级别。上述国家的海外净资产(NFA)排位也并不是最强的。但是,如果它们的经济基础面确实得到改善,而且有足够的风险调整后的价值,那么也没有什么因素阻止我们关注这些国家的名字,但是我们有可能要等待32年。

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