每日新闻更新 — 收入季节:卡特彼勒呼唤顶峰利润 The Daily Update – Earnings Season: CAT-Calling Peak Profits

远看诱人,近看失望 ...... 首先捕捉到了获取一些光鲜盈利的一丝曙光,但接下了发生的事情却令人大跌眼镜,市场原本希望看到一些‘健康的资产’和一个让人自信的前景展望的。但事与愿违,昨天有一瞬间的盈利,接下来是一场稍微有点低调的财报电话会议,市场很快就失去了对卡特彼勒(CAT)的兴趣。值得注意的是,离任集团总裁兼首席财务官布拉德·霍尔沃森(Brad Halverson)表示:“(公司的)前景展望首先要假设第一季度调整后的每股利润将成为今年的高水位。”

在早前公布的有关盈利的财报的背景下首先得到4.5%的涨幅后,这一“高水位”的声音显然吓得投资者将他们的股价下调了超过10%。 这使得卡特彼勒年初至今的股权回报率下降了7.5%(去年犹如一座恒星,上升了75%!)。然而,(市场的)这种反应似乎被夸大了,该公司除了击败了预测收入和利润外,还将预期的每股收益提高至比分析师预期的水平高出近1至2美元,列举的原因是“卓越的经营”,“强大的成本控制”以及随着经济增长(市场)对其产品的更多需求。

由于该公司专注于为资本密集型项目提供机械设备,卡特彼勒被广泛视为全球经济力量的领头羊。因此,昨天市场对卡特彼勒的反应发出的抑郁之声似乎回响在在美国股票和债券市场的上空,因为标准普尔500指数当天下跌了1.4%,美国10年期国债收益率突破了3%。市场不仅要求击败预测的收入(以及对未来收益的上调)而且(希望看到)管理层表示出的明确的前景展望,以便证明他们目前的市盈倍数是正确的,此时的市场是令人不安的。当然,这样的事情在本周早些时候也发生在谷歌的身上,当公司就给广告商支付的款项在增加一事进行报道后,人们把(原来)强劲的收入基本上忘得一干二净,使得谷歌遭受了下跌5%的损失。

当这些(市盈)倍数中有很多都处于陡峭水平的时候,管理层对前景预测哪怕出现任何一点瑕疵都会被理解为向下修改估值的需要,这一点是可以理解的。收入季节过得很快,在整体上都是积极报告的背景下,如果我们继续看到更多的下行的例子,股权投资者肯定是会担心的;跟糟糕的收入本身相比,这倒更像是一个警告的信号。

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