每日新闻更新 — 欧盟和俄罗斯的贸易关系 The Daily Update – EU - Russia Trade Ties

欧洲对俄罗斯天然气的依赖很好地说明了俄罗斯与欧洲之间重要的贸易关系。俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)估计,他们在2017年供应了欧洲天然气消耗量的34.7%;德国是最大的单个市场。这意味着欧洲的制裁方式必然与美国的不同。虽然这是一个不同的行业,但上周美国考虑到对欧洲业务的连锁反应,放松了最近对俄罗斯铝业(Rusal)的制裁,将执行(规定)的截止日期延长至10月份。美国财政部长史蒂芬·努钦(Steven Mnuchin)评论道:“考虑到(制裁)对我们的合作伙伴和盟友的影响,我们正在签发一份普通的许可证,延长维护和逐渐减少期的时间,同时我们考虑了俄罗斯铝业的申请。”

对俄罗斯天然气的依赖促使德国考虑选择将其供应商多元化:估计德国进口的60%以上的天然气来自俄罗斯。就在这样的背景下,德国也在试图摆脱煤炭和石油这样传统的燃料,在转向更为环保的燃料方面,他们倾向于天然气和可再生能源。因此,(德国)正在考虑建设液化天然气终端(德国缺乏这样的终端)的私营项目,特别是在汉堡附近的布伦斯布特 (Brunsbuettel)建设进口终端,该终端有可能到2022年建成并投入运行,估计成本为5亿美元。(德国)同时也在考虑在杜伊斯堡(Duisburg)附近建设另外一座工厂。

尽管如此,有意义的(能源供应的)多元化在接下来的5年中看起来具有挑战性,因为布伦斯布特工厂的液化天然气进口量(只)有50亿立方米,而2017年来自俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的进口量为则(多)达534.4亿立方米。正如我们所看到的,俄罗斯管道天然气 — 又名俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司 — 仍然可能成为一个关键的供应商,但是能源供应的替代来源的存在意味着俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司的定价可能尚需保持竞争力。

迄今为止,从美国到欧洲的液化天然气总量仍然很小:欧盟估计,2017年第四季度欧盟的液化天然气进口量为4.9亿立方米。2017年,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司向欧洲市场供应了1944亿立方米的天然气,卡塔尔供应了240亿立方米,其他液化天然气来源供应了266亿立方米。重要的是,俄罗斯提供给欧洲的管道天然气在成本方面的竞争力意味着,美国的液化天然气货物卖给亚洲可能更有利可图,而不是欧洲。在最近的一篇报告中,牛津能源研究所指出,“亨利枢纽价格为2.60美元/百万英热单位的美国液化天然气的全部长期边际成本超过7美元/百万英热单位,许多评论员持有不同的观点:一个比较现实的假设是,新的液化天然气项目总体上将在7-10美元/百万英热单位这一范围之内。”相比之下,他们注意到“俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司从亚马尔半岛以完全成本计算的天然气,按现行卢布汇率计算,约为6.50美元/百万英热单位。”

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.