每日新闻更新 — 对人民币贬值进行评估 The Daily Update – Evaluating a renminbi devaluation

据消息人士透露,中国的决策者一直对多项政策进行着评估,包括人民币贬值的潜在风险; 这是因为人们对贸易争端的担心居高不下。据彭博社昨天发表的文章称,“中国高级官员正在研究由政府准备的对人民币进行的两个方面的分析。”一方面考察使用货币作为贸易谈判工具的效果,另一方面评估以人民币贬值的手段来抵消拟议的美国贸易关税对出口造成的潜在影响的后果。该报告之后出现的立竿见影的明显的反应是,昨日人民币兑美元立即贬值,但离岸货币最终收涨0.20%。


(当然)这并不是说,假如贸易口水战确实导致更糟糕的情况发生,货币也不会自然贬值。但是,我们毕竟还没有到那一步,而且贸易战也可能导致美元的抛售。相反,好像中国的决策者有很多的深谋远虑,这使得他们能够在美国不退缩的情况下决定部署何种火力。其他火力可能包括:减少对美国国债的持有,限制美国在中国的投资等; 但是,这些措施比微不足道的货币贬值更为激烈。


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