每日新闻更新 — 对人民币贬值进行评估 The Daily Update – Evaluating a renminbi devaluation

据消息人士透露,中国的决策者一直对多项政策进行着评估,包括人民币贬值的潜在风险; 这是因为人们对贸易争端的担心居高不下。据彭博社昨天发表的文章称,“中国高级官员正在研究由政府准备的对人民币进行的两个方面的分析。”一方面考察使用货币作为贸易谈判工具的效果,另一方面评估以人民币贬值的手段来抵消拟议的美国贸易关税对出口造成的潜在影响的后果。该报告之后出现的立竿见影的明显的反应是,昨日人民币兑美元立即贬值,但离岸货币最终收涨0.20%。

市场应该恐惧吗?不,不必恐惧。我们有很多理由相信,强行让自己的货币贬值并不符合中国的利益。首先,关于目前针锋相对的关税建议尚未得到(有关部门的)同意。其次,中国从2015年强势的贬值中汲取了教训,这次行动破坏了该国的资产类别的稳定性。第三,中国的政策制定者三番五次地强调,他们希望将自己的货币国际化,这需要更多的市场驱动,也就是尽量少的(政府)干预。第四,中国为什么要把“货币操纵者”这个字眼轻而易举地拱手让给特朗普(使用)?最后,当然也不是最后一个原因,非制造业活动占中国国内生产总值的一半以上,那么为什么这个国家在千辛万苦进行经济改革以实现更能够持续发展的消费主导型的增长之后却要寻求一种低价值的货币?

(当然)这并不是说,假如贸易口水战确实导致更糟糕的情况发生,货币也不会自然贬值。但是,我们毕竟还没有到那一步,而且贸易战也可能导致美元的抛售。相反,好像中国的决策者有很多的深谋远虑,这使得他们能够在美国不退缩的情况下决定部署何种火力。其他火力可能包括:减少对美国国债的持有,限制美国在中国的投资等; 但是,这些措施比微不足道的货币贬值更为激烈。

5月15日将举行一场公开听证会,美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)将最后确定美国的关税清单,但离现在还有一段时间;两国都表示在此期间他们随时都可以开始谈判,不希望打贸易战。顺便提一下,特朗普发推文称,“很有可能”会与中国达成贸易交易。继昨天评论说中国正处于金融市场和汽车制造业“开放的新阶段”以及“让我们坚持开放,获得共赢”之后,从本周习近平主席在博鳌论坛上讲话中,我们也可以听到更多的理念。这种较为积极的情绪应该能够支撑人民币的稳定性。就在撰写本文时,离岸人民币今年迄今为止以现货价格计算上涨了3.47%,对美元的总回报率为4.71%。

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