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除了昨天《褐皮书》要发布之外,本周我们有来自美联储主席/董事会成员一场接着一场的演讲(一场一场又一场),其中包括:亚特兰大的拉斐尔·博斯蒂奇(Raphael Bostic),芝加哥的查尔斯·埃文斯(Charles Evans),费城的帕特里克·哈克 (Patrick Harker),纽约的威廉·达德利(William Dudley),旧金山的约翰·威廉姆斯(John Williams)以及副主席兰德尔·夸尔斯(Randal Quarles)在参议院银行委员会上发言并作证。此外,今天晚些时候,董事会成员劳尔·布莱纳德(Lael Brainard)探讨了监管改革的有关问题,克利夫兰的洛雷塔·梅斯特(Loretta Mester)做了关于经济前景的报告,夸尔斯继续进行他的证词,埃文斯最后发表了他对(经济的)前景和本周(情况)的见解。就在这些演讲如火如荼地进行的同时,长期至短期的国债息差(随您挑:2/10年期、2/30年期、5/30年期、10/30年期... ...)达到了2007年以来的最低水平。

(阅读这个目录实是不是实在让人难以承受)以下是对本周所有数据和讨论的一些重点和讨论的整理(整个美联储区的信息太多无法展开详细的阐述)。

《褐皮书》提出了一个平衡的展望,警告(在3月份/4月份)有一个“缓慢到适度的步伐”,在整个美联储区和各行业中提及“关税”的字眼不少于三十多次。消费者的支出和制造业活动得到普遍增长,但是却受到了“持续干旱状况”和钢铁/铝的价格的拖累。值得注意的是,(他们的演讲都)缺少对特朗普近期减税的提及,也许是人们围绕着关税的担心削弱了减税所承诺的积极性和活动; 也许是这意味着,企业将减税视为收入的缓冲,而不是短期内进行扩大生产的机会(因为美国的赤字已经攀升至6%)。关税是即将离任的纽约美联储区的行政首席达德利主要担心的问题之一,他表示贸易和联邦预算是重大挑战。

在美联储区别的地区:博斯蒂奇坚守中间立场 — 几乎不担心通胀或停止加息 — 主张美联储采取一个“更加中立的立场”。埃文斯表达了更多的鸽派情绪,也就是“我们有机会更耐心地阅读和应对即将出台的数据”,并回顾了70年代导致经济衰退的快速加息(的历史教训)。哈克对“隐隐约约已经出现的学生债务阴影”对美国经济及其年轻一代产生的更加广泛的后果提出了自己的不同观点。夸尔斯将重心定位于放宽金融危机后期的监管规定的作证将于周五结束,但已经听到了来自民主党和其他党派的异议。

与此同时,在马德里,威廉姆斯谈到了他对通胀的预期 — 希望“一两年”内继续保持(对称)目标为2%左右或之上的水平,但对此并不担心,因为“现在有可以抑制通胀的全球性因素”。他原来比较温和,但现在期望,到2020年将上调政策利率到3.1%-3.6%之间,让长期的利率逐渐上升一些 - 这是避免发生倒置的收益率曲线所必需的。

(不过)问题在于,自2015年12月美联储开始加息以来,从1个月到2年的短期国债收益率已经上涨到151个基点至168个基点之间,到目前为止与150个基点的上涨一致。但30年期国债收益率在此期间仅仅上涨了18个基点。事实上,这种收窄期限点差的趋势还可以向前追溯。自2013年以来,2/10年期国债的价差似乎就有一个跳跃的轨迹 — 如果这种情况继续下去,预测到2019年底将出现倒置的收益率曲线(最近18个月的路线表明今年年底前有可能出现倒置的情况)。

现在2/10年期的价差为46个基点,市场对下一次加息的反应应该能说明问题。如果这次上调最终成功了,即相应地提高长期的利率,那么人们目前的路线和市场的预期有可能被慢慢地就耗尽了,但肯定会的,要知道过去6次上调都失败了。然而,有趣的一幕是,假如长期的文件(措施)仍旧特别难以落实的话,那么我们看到的期限点差充其量不过是一次自身的加息增量而已,美联储(届时)可能难以做出这样的决定 — 是否冒着因为他们的行动直接将该受益曲线倒置过来的风险进行最后一次加息 ... ...如果真是那样(也就是说,如果它没有带来衰退的话),那才会让人跌破眼镜的。

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