每日新闻更新 —国际货币基金组织对世界经济的展望 - 现在先增长,回头再争吵 The Daily Update – IMF World Economic Outlook - Grow now, fray later

昨天国际货币基金组织发布了最新的半年度《世界经济展望》,对2018/19年全球增长的预测保持不变,为3.9%。该报告公布了对2018/19年美国(由于财政扩张的缘故)以及2018年欧洲的增长的修正,即0.2%。纵观全球最大的经济体,今年国际货币基金组织预计中国将增长6.6%(2019年为6.4%),美国增长2.9%(2019年增长2.7%),欧元区增长2.4%(2019年增长2%),日本增长1.2%(2019年增长0.9%)。预计英国在2018年将增长1.6%,较之前的估计下降0.2%,明年的增长将仅为1.5%。

然而,该报告确实提出了一个警告,文章警告说,‘全球增长预计将在未来几年内变得缓慢。一旦它们的产出缺口消失,大多数先进经济体都有可能恢复到远低于危机前平均水平的潜在增长率,这是受人口老龄化和生产率低下的因素的阻碍’。

正如国际货币基金组织的经济顾问兼研究主任莫里斯·奥伯斯费尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)解释的那样:‘尽管近期的消息不错,但是长期的前景不容乐观,先进的经济体因为面临老龄化人口,劳动力参与率下降以及生产率增长不高等诸多问题,可能无法恢复他们在全球金融危机之前享有的人均增长率’。虽然奥伯斯费尔德认为,合理的经济政策,同时外加延长经济回升的时间,将有助于减少任何破坏性的放松(政策)的风险,但他认为这说起来容易做起来难。他警告说:‘各国需要重建财政缓冲区,实施结构性改革,并谨慎地在一个已经非常复杂且具有挑战性的环境中引导货币政策’。

该报告继续警告说,目前围绕着贸易战、关税和保护主义的言论可能会影响到对需要做出的改善并维持增长的决定。正如该报告所述:‘虽然短期前景的上行和下行风险基本平衡,但未来几个季度之后的风险显然倾向于下行。对下行的担忧包括有可能出现的急剧的对金融条件的收紧,正在减弱的对全球经济一体化的普遍支持,紧张的贸易局势的加剧,向保护主义政策转变的风险,以及地缘政治方面的紧张局势’。正如奥伯斯费尔德所说:‘政府需要应对日益增强的增长的挑战,更广泛地传播其利益,并通过对那些可以彻底改变工作性质的人才进行投资来扩大经济机会’;(他)警告说‘对贸易的争夺会制约而不是推进这一项重要的议程。全球各国之间只有相互依靠才会继续增长,各国必须发扬合作而不是冲突的精神,否则世界经济将无法繁荣'。

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