每日新闻更新 — 市场希望对叙利亚的干预不要像雪球一样越滚越大 The Daily Update – Markets Expect Syria Intervention Not to Snowball

(在中国明天公布其GDP、零售和工业产出之前)今天的经济日历看起来相对简单,这意味着交易员和市场一直在关注着刚刚过去的周末西方对叙利亚发动的空袭以及其他一些地缘政治方面的压力。叙利亚严重恶化的局势及其多方面和影响深远的后果包括:(预计今天晚些时候)美国将进一步对那些跟俄罗斯的化学武器生产有关的公司予以制裁;英国议会内就特蕾莎·梅动用特权加入美国和法国的空袭行为是否违背了议会程序的精神(包括15年的惯例)并破坏了联合国安理会的程序这一问题的意见出现分歧;破坏了南韩和朝鲜之间即将举行的峰会以及金正恩和特朗普总统之间可能的见面获得成功的可能性;对布伦特原油的价格产生了压力,迫使它保持在目前的约$70区间;凸显了允许“禁止化学武器组织”(OPCW)对疑似化学武器进攻的地点进行检查的紧迫性;使得伊朗和以色列在叙利亚地区的冲突局面雪上加霜;同时,对于近期内支持叙利亚人民来说基本上起不到什么作用(虽说民众聚集在大马士革对空袭事件进行了大规模的抗议,但是他们自己也是四分五裂)。

空袭后的言辞表明了整个世界对这个问题的两极分化。北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格(Jens Stoltenberg)表示,“所有北约盟国都支持对叙利亚的空袭”,同时世界上许多其他国家的领导人(包括以色列和土耳其)也表示支持。然而,伊拉克外长和联合国秘书长安东尼奥·古特雷斯(António Guterres)等人则更多地强调了(这次事件的)“危险后果”并敦促“所有成员国表现出克制”。联合国常任理事国不仅包括美国、英国和法国 - 而且包括把这次干预称作是“违反了国际法”的中国,以及(其总统)普京宣称这些袭击“对整个国际关系体系产生了破坏性影响”的俄罗斯。

但是,除了这些激烈的言辞之外,所有各方似乎都保持着镇静,市场把这种情况视为积极的因素:美国股市的期货上涨(道指上涨130点),油价从上周的高位回落(布伦特原油曾涨至每桶73美元),俄罗斯卢布似乎正在收回之前的一些亏损。许多人基本同意北约秘书长延斯·斯托尔滕贝格的观点 —“使用化学武器是不可接受的,责任人必须承担责任”,并认为这个周末的空袭是不可避免的。与此形成对比的是,市场的反应似乎意识到了双方的克制,并希望接下来的升级是可以避免的。

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