每日新闻更新 — 贸易战和纸老虎 - The Daily update - Russia’s “Pivot to China” underway

中国今天以报复性关税(对美国)给以有力的回击,这一行动表明他们希望为美中的贸易战争划上一条底线,并揭露美国脱离正道进入贸易保护主义的行径。虽然双方征收约500亿美元的关税看上去是可比的,但中国针对的项目和行业,包括飞机、化学制品、汽车和大豆,相对于美国重点在高科技方面征收的关税,在社会和政治层面(给两个国家)带来的痛苦要大得多。例如,建议中的对大豆征收关税实际上将击中某些州,9个最大的大豆生产商中有8个处于“特朗普腹地”(“Trumpland”),而该行业的大豆生产商将真正感受到25%关税的成本。但是这将对中国自己的食品成本,主要是猪肉的价格,产生自杀式袭击的影响,而这一点也不是国内的人们所愿意看到的。该举措实际上是表示,他们宁愿在经济上忍受更多的痛苦,也不愿意让国际社会看到他们在美国的恐吓面前显得低人一等。

此外,北京的报复速度之快让华盛顿大吃一惊 — 同时这也清楚地表达了让美国在实施这些保护主义的威胁或者让这些威胁继续升级的问题上应该三思而后行的愿望。不过中国继续呼吁结束这种边缘政策,但这次的呼声比以往更加严厉:财政部副部长朱光耀今天早些时候说,“那些试图通过施加压力或者恐吓让中国屈服的国家从来就没有得逞过,现在也不会成功。”尽管中国已经清楚地对目标领域进行界定,但是并未宣布实施这些关税的具体时间,这可以被视作中国给美国时间悬崖勒马并撤回其威胁的善意姿态。

特朗普(或者最少说他的幕僚)需要意识到,北京把他看作这种边缘政策中的一只‘纸老虎’,这也许是正确的,中国在最近的反驳中就证明,他们自己绝对不是。在蓬皮奥(Pompeo)得到参议院的确认之前,(美国)只有一位代理国务卿,再加上要备战今年11月份的中期选举,美国在政治上并不处于最强的谈判地位。此外,从贸易的角度来看,没有任何一方处于比对方更优越的地位;绝大多数分析家预测,相对来讲,美国将从拒绝和中国进行贸易中遭受更大的损失。正如光耀在今天的新闻发布会所强调的那样,“外部的压力只能使得中国更加聚精会神促进经济的发展。”

就在撰写(这篇评论)的时候,道琼斯期货指数在这场口头交锋中应声跌下500点,或者约2%。这当然反映出人们的殷切期望:这些关税不会完全实施,一场痛苦的贸易战不会真的发生。假如真的发生,人们可以预见的下跌要远远超过600点。如果历史能够告诉我们关于贸易战的一些教训的话,那就是,开战很容易,但是打起来并不轻松。

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