每日新闻更新 — 科恩隐藏有见不得人的秘密?The Daily Update – Skeletons In The Cohen Closet?

叙利亚出现了使用化学武器的趋势,假如人们对此置若罔闻,不予制止,它很有可能被其他交战的国家视为标准的做法,加上目前正处于和伊斯兰国战争的关键时刻,可以肯定地说,对于特朗普政府来讲,现在似乎不是沿着这条熟悉的原来曾经导致被弹劾的道路走下去的最佳时刻。毕竟,联邦调查局和司法部副部长罗德·罗森斯坦(Rod Rosenstein)一定掌握了重要的线索才会有突袭总统律师的勇气。正如一位联邦调查局的前特工所说,“我已经在联邦调查局做特工20年了,只看到过少量的律师被执行过搜查。凡是被执行搜查的律师最终都进了监狱。”

当最新的进展是由特朗普所任命并获得法官批准的一名律师来寻求的时候,人们越来越难以把这一场调查特朗普的行动当成一场“搜捕女巫”的行动了。今天还有消息认为,特朗普认为他有权解雇特别顾问罗伯特·穆勒(Robert Mueller),这显示了他对法律和近代历史的无知。《美国联邦法规》明确规定,只有司法部长才能解雇他们,而当年当尼克(试图)将他的(调查官员)革职时,司法部副部长和部长全都倒戈辞职,因为他们不愿意屈服。所以,就是尼克松(当年)也遵守了这些法规。但是,无论特朗普做不做这件事件,现在看来这个隐藏秘密的橱柜已经被打开。3个月前对玛纳福特(Manafort)进行的突袭已经导致了12项的起诉(以及其他各种金融犯罪的指控)。人们是不是可以期待在科恩的橱柜里发现更大的见不得人的秘密?

鉴于特朗普在第一任期内被弹劾的赔率现在大约在4/6左右,所以值得问一下,在这种情况下市场可能产生何种反应。事实上,从波动性和整体表现方面来看,这些反应都是交织在一起的,其中很大一部分是由于许多其他因素造成的。此外,谢天谢地这个样本的量非常小,只有四位美国总统曾遭遇弹劾的背运。他们是1842年的泰勒(未成功),1868年的约翰逊(被宣告无罪),1998年的克林顿(被控诉作伪证和妨碍司法,但被宣告无罪)以及1974年水门事件中的尼克松(在弹劾程序之前辞职并被赦免)。

有一定数据显示,前两个事件对股票市场存在着积极的影响,实际上标准普尔500指数在克林顿的桃色新闻被曝光和最终被宣判无罪之间增长了近28%。然而,在克林顿接受的几次审判期间,标准普尔500指数下跌了22%,但这期间大幅的下滑主要是由美国长期资本管理公司(LTCM)的失败和俄罗斯危机所造成的。尼克松的经历可能看起来(和上述情况)非常相似,标准普尔500指数在他的参议院调查和辞职之间下降了28%;但是,他的破坏性政策和布雷顿森林(Bretton Woods)体系标准的失败通常是人们抱怨市场下调的原因。因此,也许没有什么了不起的原因让人担心弹劾一定会对股市造成持久的损害,但是,至少可以预期,如果最新的突袭发现任何不正当的财务或个人行为的证据,市场则会出现一些波动。

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