每日新闻更新 — 虽说西班牙和印度尼西亚升级,不过我更乐意投资墨西哥 The Daily Update – Spain and Indonesia Upgrades…Rather Hold Mexico

上周,穆迪将西班牙的长期评级提升一档至Baa1,这是在标准普尔将其向上修正一步至A-之后进行的。穆迪表示其审核“反映了近年来看到的(该国)信贷状况的改善,特别是由越来越平衡的增长和银行业基本面的改善带来的经济弹性的增强。”尽管该国家的基本面已经改善,但我们的计算结果是,该国的NFA排名为2星,因此它不包括在我们的可投资范围之内。

印度尼西亚的评级也被穆迪提升一档,即Baa2,这样就将他们的评级与惠誉的评级保持了一致,并高于标准普尔一档。鉴于印度尼西亚在2017年从三星级滑下,我们还将它评定为二星级NFA国家。即使印度尼西亚处于我们的可投资的范围之内,我们也不会持有该国的债券; 实际上我们从来就没有持有过。其原因是他们提供的有吸引力的风险调整后的回报方式很少; 大多数主权债券的交易实际上非常昂贵。比如说,2045年5.125%的债券交易的点差比美国国债高178个基点,而期间为14.6的相似的债券比美国国债高出179个基点,所以没有任何的点差缓冲。

与此同时,穆迪重申其对墨西哥的评级为A3,理由是经济规模庞大且多元化,财政整顿背后的债务水平下降,以及前景更为乐观的北美自由贸易协定谈判的背景。凭借3星级的NFA排名,墨西哥被纳入我们的可投资债券的领域。例如,以美元计价的评级为Aa3的2040年6.05%主权债券,以及国有的(评级为Baa1的)Pemex 2035年6.625%的债券对我们有吸引力。前者债券的风险调整后的回报(含收益)约为15%,这便宜了大约3个节点,而Pemex的2035债券目前的交易价格为接近5个节点的点差缓冲,回报和收益率高于25%。所以,我们更乐意在这些水平上投资墨西哥。

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