每日新闻更新 — 波动性露出了它的青面獠牙 The Daily Update – Volatility shows its teeth

周一的股票市场看上去有点像一只死猫弹跳(假如有这样的情况的话),标普500离开了它的200日移动平均线(约2587),不过昨天再次下跌的幅度并不大,触及2596点。今天亚洲和欧洲股市进一步下跌可能意味着今天下午晚些时候这个下线会再次得到考验。

从本周初开始,标准普尔500指数持平,但纳斯达克的方正科技巨头指数上涨超过16%:绝大多数是在奈飞(Netflix),亚马逊(Amazon),推特(Twitter)和恩威迪亚(Nvidia)今年飞涨之后(分别为67%/、33%、33%以及 26%)。但是随着昨日的表现,标准普尔指数今年以来已经下跌1.85%,方正指数在下跌超过5.6%之后使得它在2018年的涨幅缩小到10%以下,遭遇有记录以来的最大打击。

这些大型的科技公司正像它们在很大范围内所表现的那样,并不像人们所认为的那样整齐如一,但典型的情况是,伴随着上述公司的股票分别下跌6%、4%、12%以及8%,这些从年初到现在的盈利股的表现昨天是最糟糕了。昨天表现特别差的应该是推特了,当时做空头的安德鲁·莱福特抓住最佳时机,在一个报告中表达了他对该公司的观点的改变。在这份报告中他详细地介绍了他的观点:对于该公司的前景来说,‘一切都已经改变’。

特斯拉(Tesla)也是一个离群者,从年初到现在它的表现已经呈现负数。随着调查的逐步升级和 Model 3 生产的逐步失宠,昨天受挫之后,它的降幅仅仅在2018年的前3个月之内就超过了10%。不仅如此,它的股票也是美国市场被做空最多的股票,价值为94亿美元的3千万股票被借入;它的债券也是如此,根据 IHS Markit 的数据,它的2025年期5.3%的债券有高达13.2%被卖空。

所有这些表现并不都预示着技术危机,因为虽然方正在2016年2月5日也下跌了5.4%,但毕竟随后的涨幅又超过了150%!但是这些情况确实表明了股票市场潜在的波动性,尤其是在技术领域,有几只许多人不愿目睹的獠牙。在负面消息的周期中,这种巨变的信号暴露出对目前估价的必要的支持是不足的。随着复活节的到来,交易周的缩短,在接下来的几天我们有可能继续看到比平时更多的波动性。

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