每日新闻更新 — 对于“阿马德(项目)”的反应:特朗普带着伊朗和石油贸易商坐了一次过山车 The Daily Update - “Amad” Reaction: Trump Takes Iran and Oil Traders for a Ride

昨天随着布伦特原油价格从每桶76美元下跌到接近每桶73美元左右,也是在那些持有2000亿美元长期石油期货合约的公司获得了他们预期的成果之际,石油贸易商被迫坐上了一辆过山车,应运而生的是,在推特上出现了一个名字叫 #prayfortheoiltraders <为石油贸易商祈祷>的帐号 —(原来)特朗普拒绝了伊朗核协议。人们预计的价格反应终于在5个小时之后到来了,石油价格反弹到它开始的价格(市场的这一定价主要是在特朗普的吹嘘声中进行的)。就在撰写本文时,布伦特原油价格已经攀升至每桶77美元之上,创下了自2014年后半年时石油市场的范式转变以来的最高水平(价格仍需要进一步上涨50%才能接近最近十年中前五年期间的那个水平)。

正如人们普遍预期的那样,特朗普忽视了国际社会的敦促,并退出了奥巴马政府在2015年搞砸的这场“尴尬局面”(他这么认为)。更准确地说,篇幅达109页的“联合综合行动计划”(JCPOA)是一项花费了将近两年的谈判时间才取得的成果,参与谈判的国家有伊朗和许多特权国家:特别是欧盟和 P5+1(联合国安理会的常任理事国的成员 — 中国、法国、俄罗斯、英国、美国再加上德国)。

对昨天的这项撤出举措的预期只在上个月当特朗普开始利用以色列通过长篇的演讲反对伊朗的“2002/03阿马德项目”的指责时才得以核实,双方都宣布这个项目是一项与最近的协议背道而驰的秘密禁令 — (该项目)违反了国际原子能机构(IAEA)的规定,国际原子能机构清楚地记载了伊朗这一邪恶但是已经停止的目标。但是以色列只需要说服一个观众即可。这并不意味着特朗普(和以色列)对伊朗的怀疑是没有根据的。毕竟,当艾哈迈迪内贾德(Ahmadinejad)上台后,伊朗是第一个对2005年“德黑兰宣言”和“巴黎协定”进行倒行逆施的国家,后来伊朗在打着恪守欧盟条件的幌子的同时吹嘘说已经掌握了铀黄饼的转化技术。显而易见的是,人们从未期望2015年的“联合综合行动计划”会成为该地区(核)不扩散的持久保证 - 这对于那位单枪匹马为朝鲜半岛带来和平的当下的红人来说,这显然是不够的(咳嗽)。

很显然,美国的撤军意味着对伊朗重新实施更严厉的制裁,并导致石油供应的下降。但在目前的水平上,似乎需要更多的其他行动才会推动油价大幅上涨。在市场观望“联合综合行动计划”的其他成员如何对特朗普的举动做出反应的同时;如果人们注意伊朗和以色列之间的紧张关系在未来几周内的发展也有助于了解局势的发展,(这种紧张的关系在叙利亚荒芜的土地上一直在蔓延),这种局面可能会导致油价的进一步上涨。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.