每日新闻更新 — 新兴市场(经济体)的得分 The Daily Update – Emerging market scores

彭博经济学今天发布了一篇有趣的文章,根据他们看到的新兴市场经济体对特朗普总统政策的脆弱程度对其进行排名。这里有三个主要因素得到测量并评分。第一个因素是“在应对保护主义方面的脆弱性”,第二个因素是“在应对利率(提高)方面的脆弱性”,第三个脆弱性是“在石油方面的脆弱性”。有十五个国家得到了评分,南非和泰国处于最后两个位置,它们的总体得分分别是一分和两分,而名列前茅的两个位置则是得分为十五的俄罗斯和得分为十四的巴西。

他们考察了(这些经济体)由于受美国在伊朗核协议方面的政策、对中国征收的关税以及对北美自由贸易协定的威胁这些方面的影响,以及美国利率上升对这些经济体的影响。在伊朗问题上,这些国家被排名的标准是作为国内生产总值(GDP)一部分的石油生产的净出口(量);在关税问题上,其标准就是这些国家作为国内生产总值的一部分的出口方面的前景;在利率影响方面,就是如普遍预期的那样美联储在下一个时期将继续提高基金利率对(各新兴经济体)在经常账户和基金费用层面产生的影响。

我们认为,还应该包括进去的其他因素是,(这些国家)利用储备来减缓所有上述因素所造成的影响的能力。中国在这个图表上的排名是第十二,但这并没有考虑到它的巨大储备,以及如果有需要它可以迅速地改变政策的能力。沙特阿拉伯的得分排在第九名,不过这个排名忽略了这个国家在利用其多年的经常账户盈余来克服短期障碍的同时减少费用昂贵的石油生产并降低成本的能力。而得分很高的巴西当遇到持续得不到解决的困难时并没有多少储备可用。

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