每日新闻更新 — 美联储的会议记录 The Daily Update – Fed Minutes

昨晚美国国债从跌幅中反弹,最明显的领先这一反弹的便是较短期间的5年期的债券;这导致了受益曲线出现了轻度的陡峭化。这一变化发生在一次新的5年期基准债券拍卖的背景下,这次拍卖发行了360亿美元,和最近几次的交易相比,进展还算‘顺利’,在短期债市一端的这一变化发生在5月2日联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要发布之后;该会议记录对本年度下半年就接下来进一步加息一事的指导并没有什么改变,但是6月份的另外一次加息正在考虑之中。在利率方面的反弹贯穿于整个曲线:在美国收盘时5年期下降了7.4个基点,10年期下降了7.4个基点。

对于那些对中央银行的技术工作感兴趣的人来说,看起来这次会议的讨论基本上都是围绕着操作联邦基金利率所需要的变化一事而进行的。超额储备金利率(IOER))每天都在使用,以便将利息控制在目标级别之中,但是目前在交易中的水平过高,多出了5个基点。这看上去是一件小事,但是对于中央银行的管理界来说就是一件大事。这样说吧,这很有点像有人要把汽车停在100英尺的空地上,就这最终还是撞到了前边的汽车上 — 水平有点差吧。用中央银行的术语,长期错过一个25基点的基金点差有可能让人们怀疑他们在经营储备金方面的能力,因此此事被提到了董事会级别进行讨论。讨论的结果并不清楚,但是似乎倾向于只有在基金下一次宣布增长25个基点的时候才会将超额储备金利率增加20个基点。

委员会还讨论了受益曲线的形状,但是他们在是否可以将受益曲线的价值视作一个经济衰退的信号的问题上似乎存在着意见分歧。我们现在还要观望委员们的进一步评论,以及6月13日很快就要到来的下一次美联储的会议。

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