每日新闻更新 — 美联储和美国国债的拍卖 The Daily Update – Fed, UST auctions

昨晚的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)声明是一种“逐日盯市”,对于期货的政策并没有给出任何明确的暗示。自上次的 FOMC 会议以来,由于基数效应,通货膨胀在12个月的基础上上涨,第一季度国内生产总值显示增长速度相对上一季度已经放缓。这导致了关于增长和通货膨胀分类声明的细微变化,其中包括取消了之前一个短语的使用。该短语的内容是,美联储将密切监视通胀的发展。

市场更感兴趣的是该国债的偿付公告。根据该公告,其发行安排低于市场预期,使得本来就遍体鳞伤的国债市场得到了一点喘息的机会,就在 FOMC 声明发表之前的(市场)结束的短暂时间内进行了小幅反弹。然而,财政部实际增加的息票和债券的供应量远低于市场预期;他们还在声明中表示,他们预计在进入9月份财政年度结束时,债券的总供应量将适度减少,并承诺制定新的2月期票据基准。我们预计第一次拍卖将在第四季度进行(两个月到期的债券将是对11月份还款的一个不错的补充,就在新的票据马上就要跨越年底之时)。另一个令人意外的情况是,增加发行美国国债通胀保护证券(TIPS)不足,使得有人猜测,他们可能会在今年晚些时候计划新的5年期 TIPS。

如上所述,这是市场在今天的耐用品、贸易、工厂订单和 PMI 数据以及明天的非常重要的非农就业数据出台之前得到的喘息机会;市场的预期是 +19.2k 的标题数字以及月平均小时收入的增长仅仅为0.2%。

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