每日新闻更新 — 金边债券、美国国债和马来西亚 The Daily Update – Gilts Treasuries Malaysia

英格兰银行昨天的“中立维持”表明经济形势改变起来可以多么地快。就在四周前,市场的定价在一个持续的紧缩中行进,当时对5月份上涨25个基点的概率预测约为96%,但在令人失望的经济数据(特别是 CPI 和 GDP 数据)发布之后,现在看来8月份涨息的希望还不到50%,有些人要求到年底时将10年期的金边债券的收益率定为1%;跟今天早上的水平相比这将下跌43个基点。

在美国那边,长端国债市场在成功地将长期债券以2.38倍的覆盖率拍卖了创造历史记录的170亿美元之后恢复了一定程度的镇定。尽管这次发行的基点为0.7,是通过下午1点场次的发行前出价敲定的,有71%的买方分拆(takedown),但是发行情况还是要好于最近的平均水平。这导致了5年期-30年期的美国国债曲线变平趋势向前发展了4个基点,达到了2007年8月以来的最平点 — 27.7个基点,而2年期-10年期的利差也在牛市趋平的走势中收窄。在疲软的 CPI 通胀报告的支持下,在一些市场参与者的眼里,看起来5年期-30年期的曲线可能会朝着20个基点的目标继续走平。

  • 在其他地方,人们常说,年龄只不过是一个数字而已,把这个说法用在马来西亚新任总理这里那是再恰当不过了。马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德(Mahathir Mohamad)在92岁 — 这个并不算小的年龄 — 令人震惊地获得国家大选的胜利,作为这个亚洲国家的新总理宣誓就职,这样就结束了执政联盟六十年的控制权。他成为世界上最古老的领导人,赢得权力后宣布给整个国家放假两天,还有比这样更好的庆祝方式吗?而在英国这边,皇家就要举行婚礼,而我们连一个银行假日也没有,算了,我们连圣乔治节日也不用庆祝了。

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