每日新闻更新 — 关于希腊的债务对国内生产总值的警告 The Daily Update – Greece’s debt-to-GDP warning

在过去的一周里,国际货币基金组织(IMF)一直在敦促欧盟同意为希腊提供债务减免计划,以确保该基金有足够的时间开始为该国提供资金。国际货币基金组织欧洲事务主任波尔·汤姆森(Poul Thomsen)警告说‘时间不多了',然而,他确实继续说‘但是如果5月份欧元集团会议达成一致,那么我们就会有足够的时间来启动该计划,并将它与欧洲稳定机制(ESM)项目的其余部分保持一致’。根据瓦尔蒂斯·多姆布罗夫斯基斯(Valdis Dombrovskis)的说法,欧盟似乎并不怎么在意这一紧急呼吁提出的要求,认为关于希腊债务减免的任何决定离现在都有长达两个月的时间。此人拥有欧洲委员会欧洲和社会对话副主席这一令人印象深刻的头衔。

其实在此之前,今年早些时候发出过这样的警告 — 除非欧盟同意减轻救援计划的负担,否则正如国际货币基金组织所言,希腊对筹资的需求可能在未来几十年内变得具有爆炸性和‘非常不可持续发展性’。据国际货币基金组织称,到2060年,希腊的债务可能会达到其国内生产总值的275%。这些数字与欧盟自己的估计形成鲜明对比,因为欧盟的分析显示,2060年(希腊的)债务与国内生产总值的比率仅为104.9%。

根据评估,即使希腊政府要执行欧盟救助计划所要求的所有改革措施,到2030年,其债务将达到国内生产总值的160%,此后局面将开始失控。正如国际货币基金组织所言:‘即使希腊全面实施改革,我们也无法认为希腊能够摆脱债务问题’,因为该组织认为,欧盟需要提供大量债务减免以便确保希腊的债务负担变得可以持续下去。

希腊援助计划于2018年到期,价值高达86亿欧元。自2015年年中以来,国际货币基金组织并没有给希腊人任何贷款,因为它认为其债务是不可持续的。然而,由德国、法国和荷兰带领的欧盟热衷于将国际货币基金组织重新置于正常的轨道中,认为该基金的参与为救助计划提供了信誉以吸引选民和市场。

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