每日新闻更新 — 非农就业数据 The Daily Update – Non-farm Payrolls

今天发布的4月份非农就业数据显示,新增的就业岗位为16.4万,低于要创建19.3万个就业岗位的预期,上个月的数字被上修为3.2万至13.5万。与前一个月的数据4.1%相比,收到的失业率数据为3.9%,就业参与率从62.9%小幅度降至62.8%。重要的是,每小时平均收入要比同比预期低2.6%,而上月的同比数字被下修至2.6%。 从整体上来说,这一组数字对于债券市场来说是积极的。

目前的美国经济扩展到现在已经持续了106个月,跟可追溯到1854年的NBER 数据库中第二次最长的扩展期间持平;那次期间的时间是从1961年的3月份到1969年的12月份。此外,全球经济增长的这一周期受到低成本的债务的推动,尽管这种负债正在逐渐逆转。国际货币基金组织估计,2016年全球公共和非金融私营部门的债务高达164万亿美元或占国内生产总值的225%,比2009年上一次的峰值高出12%。消极的进一步限制增长的长期趋势,如人口统计资料,只会使得局面变糟。在缺乏显著的持续发展的生产力的情况下,进一步的政策紧缩将使全球增长回升越来越难以持久。

我们认为,有望还有多达两次的基点为25的联邦基金的加息,最有可能在6月和9月。更高的利率和资产负债表的逐渐减少结合在一起应该开始阻碍美国经济增长至今年年底和2019年。任何额外的(利率)上调要依赖于减税、财政政策的影响,以及更大程度的贸易保护主义的立场给美国和全球经济所带来的冲击。我们认为,在这个周期阶段的财政刺激措施只会让风险增加:美联储在收紧政策方面的行为越激进,美国陷入衰退的风险就越大。

我们认为美联储超前曲线;我们还认为,因为存在着美国发生经济衰退时情况最终出现反转的潜能,所以收益率曲线将继续趋于平缓;因此我们倾向于在曲线较长的一端进行投资组合定位,并偏向较高质量的信贷。

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