每日新闻更新 — 被粉饰的货币和人民币 The Daily Update – PAINTBRUSH & the renminbi

2014年2月,斯特拉顿大街(Stratton Street)列举了一些可能遭遇“下滑”运势的国家名单,这些国家在基本面的疲软一直被搁置或被忽视,但实际上它们是脆弱的。随着美联储利率的正常化和债券购买量的逐渐减少,去杠杆化的背景让那些欠下大额对外净债务的国家呈现出一种非常负面的景象,我们不妨把这些国家统称为‘被粉饰的’国家。如果不按照引起人们关注的具体的级别来排序的话,这些‘被粉饰的’国家就是波兰、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、新西兰、土耳其、巴西、罗马尼亚、乌克兰、南非和匈牙利。从整体上来看,自2014年1月底以来,这些国家的货币中没有任何一种(即期汇率)对美元显示出正回报:不足为奇的是,乌克兰是这些货币中表现最为糟糕的,(到撰写本文时为止)格里夫纳下跌幅度大约67%,其次就是土耳其里拉,下降了大约52%。即使是这些货币中表现最好的南非货币,以即期(汇率)为计算标准的话,也下跌了10.9%。相比之下,尽管在此期间美元指数(DXY)已经升值,新加坡、中国、日本和瑞士等债权国的货币表现较好。

拥有海外净资产余额的国家对外国资金流入的依赖程度低于有海外净债务的国家;从长期的观点来看,债权人的货币趋于升值,而负债累累的债务人的货币往往会贬值。由此可见,中国的人民币仍然是斯特拉顿大街最受欢迎的货币之一:中国拥有正面的海外净资产的位置,这得益于经常账户上持续的盈余,尽管数量并不大。今年所有的流动性困扰着更脆弱的新兴市场的货币,就在这样的背景下,人民币不失为有吸引力的投资的好去处。如果考虑到正利差的因素(中国利率高于美国利率),持有人民币的回报得到了进一步的增加:跟即期(汇率)的2%相比,年初至今人民币(CNH)的总回报率为3.8%,

根据中国强劲的基本面,持续的经常账户上的盈余和强劲的海外净资产状况,还有同样重要的举措 — 最近通过债券连接(Bond Connect)等计划开放的中国债券市场,我们预计人民币每年将继续升值约4%。这些资金流入将推动海外对人民币的持有,但目前这个比例只有2%,远低于中国在世界经济中的重要性。这种局面将发生变化。

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