每日新闻更新 — 五月份特雷莎·梅的日子很难过 The Daily Update – Theresa May may Mayday in May

五月份对首相特雷莎·梅(Theresa May)来说看起来有些挑战。尽管在一年之内就受欢迎的程度而言这是她在民调中第一次超过杰里米·科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)(准确地说是不受欢迎的程度没有那么大)。她现在其实面临着来自议员内部的针对脱欧的一项新的“最后通牒”,以及来欧盟各级官员的挥之不去的对脱欧的悲观情绪;如果在地方议会选举中有什么令人失望和丢失席位的消息传出的话,过了明天就可以找到答案了。

第一波攻击来自她自己党内和“脱欧战争内阁”,而他们当中的有些人今天发布了一份长达30页的“最后通牒”。该文件反对在脱欧后与欧盟建立一种所谓的“海关伙伴关系”的提案,而该提案(得到财相菲利普·哈蒙德(Philip Hammond)的支持)为了一些实际的贸易要牺牲某种程度的自制。由雅各布·里斯·莫格(Jacob-Rees-Mogg)领导并由60名议员组成的欧洲研究小组已经写了大量反对该提案的信函,而今天信函的矛头就是要表达这一反对的观点。该信函指出:“他们提出的新的海关合作关系从运作的层面无法实施,因为它的实施要依靠一定程度的监管上的统一行动措施,而该措施实际上将使得独立的贸易政策无法兑现。”此外,每日电讯报报道说,如果(该呼声)不予理会,“保守党的国会议员将考虑撤回对政府在议会内提出的法案给予的支持。这将导致立法瘫痪,并给作为国家领导人的梅姨的前途画上问号。”

此外,来自欧盟的对脱欧谈判持有的悲观情绪一直在作祟,使得保守党和贸易谈判代表团越来越难以取得进展。最近受到的当头一棒来自巴尼尔(Barnier)。他说,“这里确实有风险;我们必须为所有选项做好准备,包括(谈判最终)达不成任何协议”。他还说,“英国的谈判方式需要改变一下”。英国和欧盟“需要在6月份之前就在何种范围内获得协调一致迅速达成协议”;如果他们希望实现在十月份达成协议这一目标的话,还需要进一步加快协商的步伐。

最后(如果特雷莎·梅有那么幸运的话),当前的政治气候(其中脱欧仍是一个重要的驱动因素)有可能在明天通过英格兰的150个地方议会的选民表现出来,尽管最近双方的丑闻(从温德拉什(Windrush)(移民)事件到涉嫌反犹太人思潮)也使得局面混乱不堪。在这些地方议会中,有超过4000个竞争的席位,包括整个伦敦各选区的所有地方议员。

鉴于政府的(各方)党派习惯于在地方议会选举中展开更为激烈的争夺,保守党面临着一场艰难的战役,为最近一段时期的失职受到各种指责。(这些指责)首先来自留欧派要表达的他们的屈尊,然后是脱欧派要表达的他们对进程缓慢的不满,再到诸如位于肯辛顿的格伦费尔塔楼(Grenfell Tower)事件带来的灾难。在肯辛顿选取中(总共48个席位中),保守党所占的37个席位有可能在这次投票中(为此事)买单。对保守党的地方议会计划(如削减开支的建议)也有很多来自地方选民的担忧。但是,尽管如此,这位梅姨首相最终可能会为种种失望以及明显的表达抗议的投票承担绝大部分责任。这次选举是英国离开欧盟之前的最后一次选举,所以任何反对她引领英国脱欧的人士都将有可能在五月份结束之前发飙。

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