每日新闻更新 — 债权国和阿布扎比 The Daily Update – Creditors & Abu Dhabi

过去一个月的数据显示,负债净额过高并依赖外部资本的债务国很容易受到美联储紧缩政策和美元流动性限制的影响。在这个周期的这个节点,我们继续支持在债权国和净外债低于国内生产总值50%的国家进行定位投资组合:国际货币基金组织的研究表明,超过这个门槛的水平便意味着外部危机风险的增加。

我们继续看好海湾合作委员会成员国(GCC),如阿布扎比、卡塔尔、科威特和沙特阿拉伯,因为它们有强大的净外国资产缓冲仓位,享有额外的收益 — 我们的估价屏幕显示,很多主权和准主权债券得到了很高的评级,交易结果诱人。例如,阿布扎比被穆迪/标准普尔评级为Aa2/AA的2047年期的4.125%的债券在交易中的收益率为4.7%,比我们的模型便宜了4个信用档好要多。   

6月8日,标准普尔重申其阿布扎比长期外汇评级为AA,前景稳定。他们表示:“该评级得到了阿布扎比强大的财政和外部支持。政府净资产状况的超强优势为缓解石油价格波动对经济增长、政府收入、外部账户以及与日俱增的海湾地区地缘政治的不确定性带来的影响提供了缓冲。”尽管如此,因为与其他一些评级同行相比其政治制度尚处于“初步发展阶段”,所以评级受到了限制,其数据披露也可以改善,债券市场相对欠发达,阿联酋迪拉姆与美元挂钩是货币政策的制约因素。

更强劲的石油价格也为海湾合作委员会成员国的预算提供了更多的灵活性。最近,阿布扎比批准了价值为500亿迪拉姆(136亿美元)的3年财政刺激方案,用于支持经济增长并创造就业机会; 预计(穆迪)今年国内生产总值增长仅为1.2%。穆迪表示,这个刺激方案使得政府的花费高达大约5%。然而,政府在其2018年预算中使用的油价是每桶50美元,但今年年初以来,平均油价已经超过了每桶65美元。穆迪估计,在该一揽子方案的实施过程中,如果油价超过每桶60美元,那么增加的来自碳氢化合物的收入将能够支付这部分花费。

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