每日新闻更新 — 欧洲中央银行的“资产经营项目” The Daily Update – ECB’s Asset Management Programme

今天早上,就在欧洲央行首席经济学家彼得·普雷特(Peter Praet)做一个典型的演讲的同时,欧元和整个欧洲范围内的主权收益率一起涨到了10天以来的新高;他在柏林的这次演讲中向“精算师大会”概括了“在低利率环境下的货币政策”的旅程和挑战 (我本来知道这件事的,我们怎么忘了把这个事情写进日记本里了?)像往常一样,他的正规的言语是枯燥无味的,但很好地综述了指导中央银行当前政策立场的因素和思想:突出了“创新和更为大胆的措施”,特别是他们的“资产购置计划(APP);而该项目正是他们反击和扭转危机战略的关键组成部分。”

但在进入所有历史细节之前,甚至可能在失去即使是最精干的精算师们的关注之前,他透露的消息是,“下周,理事会将不得不评估迄今为止的进展是否足以保证我们逐渐撤回我们在净额购置方面的做法”。当然,市场对欧洲央行正考虑调整这一超过2.5万亿欧元的前所未有的债券购买的计划的消息作出了反应;这个计划的实施使得欧洲央行拥有荷兰政府债券的26%,德国政府债券的25%,西班牙政府债券的21%,法国政府债券的18%,以及意大利政府债券的15%。

但除了欧洲央行对市场警告说下周四的会议将对量化紧缩(简写为 QT)进行现场讨论所产生的这些明显的含义之外,在此背后,欧洲中央银行是不是正在发生更多的事情?

上个月,‘非政治性’机构欧洲央行缩减了购买意大利债券的份额(尽管从绝对的意义上将购买的数量比平时多);这让新一届‘民粹主义’政府感到沮丧,他们要求知道,这是否是针对在意大利政坛被踢来踢去的反欧盟言论的某种权力的操作。事实上,取代到期的德国政府债券有可能是欧洲央行购买较小份额的意大利债券的原因(尽管法国政府债券和意大利政府债券之间的差价从大约100个基点到多于200个基点进行了翻倍引起了人们的怀疑)。在此之后,一些人看到今天的宣布隐藏了类似的意图 — 加倍惩罚意大利民粹主义的活动,而实际上它有可能是相反意图的显示。

宣布对量化紧缩的议题进行进一步讨论的这一大胆的举措,可以被视为欧洲央行展示其对意大利留在欧盟的信心以及乐意实施从数据方面来看对于更广泛的欧盟似乎是合适的措施的意图,尽管这一行动导致了欧盟央行的工作人员通过评论暗示这次讨论的时间更大的可能性是最早在七月份举行。尽管如此,现在我们仍有很多将在下周发生的事件可以期待,除了美联储、欧洲央行和日本央行会议之外,还有美国的消费者价格指数的数据和特朗普的朝鲜峰会。

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