每日新闻更新 — 特朗普您好,再见,全球发展 The Daily Update – Hello Trump, Bye Bye Global Growth

“保护主义”和“贸易战”是今年新闻通讯中最常用的短语,在特朗普积极推行其贸易和投资政策之际,没有迹象表明这些担心很快就会减弱。我们丝毫不了解他想达到的目标,但我们所知道的是,贸易战和贸易保护主义对任何国家来说都不是好事,而且是对全球增长的最大威胁。

就在昨天,我们听说,欧盟对进口摩托车征收报复性关税31%(原来是6%),从而迫使美国标志性和最大的摩托车制造商哈雷·戴维森(Harley Davidson)重新考虑其在美国的生产能力。据其监管注册文档显示,这家摩托车制造商估计,一旦欧盟增加关税,每辆摩托车的费用将高出约2200美元,或每年大约9000万至-1亿美元。作为被特朗普去年吹嘘为“模范美国制造商”的哈雷·戴维森曾表示,不希望将额外成本转嫁给客户,而是在必要时对其进行内部吸收,并且因此宣布计划将部分生产迁出美国。虽然目前尚不清楚有多少生产将会被转移到国外以及被转移到何处,但我们相信,这不是最后一家公司重新考虑(其生产)的,而这恰恰和特朗普先生一直努力的目标,即复兴美国的制造业,背道而驰。

然后就是整个中国的情况,美国政府似乎以每天为单位在发起对中国的攻击,现在的目标是科技行业。继美国宣布它将限制中国在美国科技公司的投资之后,标准普尔科技指数昨天遭受打击(与更广泛的发达股票市场一起);向安全资产方向的转移已经看到了美国国债曲线的反弹,甚至进一步趋平至2007年8月的水平。虽然中国已经表明它完全有能力执行同样具有破坏性的关税和法规,但它似乎并不想参与这次贸易游戏(声明它不打算阻止美国公司在中国公司进行投资),而是寻找其他方法来消除对经济造成的潜在损失。上周末,我们听说中国人民银行将定向降准50个基点,并于7月5日生效。该国的储备金要求是全球最高的国家之一; 随着贸易紧张局势的加剧,随着中国继续通过大中型金融机构债转股交换的手段去杠杆化,今年我们有可能看到该国将进一步减持以维持流动性;在最近的贸易紧张局势之后,中国财政部已经提出,要通过增加最低门槛的手段减少所得税以刺激国内需求。这两项措施并不意味着它对政策采取的方法是失败的,而是清楚地证明,该国有足够的火力部署来保持强劲和稳定的增长,并应对外部冲击和管理人民币。

就人民币而言,有很多不确定的报道表明,中国正在使用货币作为对付潜在贸易影响的工具,但我们几乎没有看到这种情况的迹象。当然,由于美元和短期市场情绪普遍走强,离岸人民币近期走弱(即便如此,今年迄今为止人民币仍是相对于美元表现最好的货币之一)。然而,我们认为,面对一位急于命名中国为汇率操纵国的美国总统,而且在一个推动国内消费的国家,削弱人民币汇率似乎是违反直觉的。相反,我们认为中国人民银行允许市场力量在汇率很低的情况下有较大的发言权而几乎没有实施干预; 事实证明,该国外汇储备实际上保持稳定,今年超过3.1万亿美元。

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