每日新闻更新 — 巴林考察团的使命 The Daily Update – Mission to Bahrain

根据国际货币基金组织派往巴林的考察团的调查结果,预计巴林经济今年增长将达到3.2%;油价的回升和非碳氢化合物行业产量的增加支撑了增长。然而,这个国家的经济仍旧紧张,尤其是跟它的邻居相比的时候。国际货币基金组织警告说,该国的“财政和外部方面的脆弱性在上升”,并补充说,该国“随着公共债务的持续增加,利息支出在不断增加,预计赤字将持续保持在相当的规模”;目前公共债务约占国内生产总值的85%。

因为巴林继续支持公共债务的注入,自2015年以来,巴林的外汇储备也有所下降,4月份的外汇储备仅为21亿美元;虽然4月份增长了46%,但巴林的外汇储备仍然只能维持大约一个月的进口,这是非常令人担忧的。根据该国自己的计算,巴林需要石油的价格达到每桶115美元才能平衡其预算,但是布伦特原油目前的交易价格才刚刚超过每桶75美元。此外还有11月份到期的价值7.5亿美元的伊斯兰债券必须偿还。

巴林被穆迪和标准普尔评为 B1/B+,被惠誉评为 BB-。穆迪在最近一次评级更新中评论说:“这种负面的前景反映了该 B1 评级持续下行的风险,这表现出政府层面和外部流动性层面的风险在提升”,并补充说:“考虑到负面评级的展望,在可预见的未来该评级上升的可能性非常小”。除了评级下调至垃圾级别(2016年发生过)之外,由于担心该国经济基本面的恶化,自2014年第一季度以来,我们并未持有巴林的债券。

我们之前曾看好2022年期的6.125%的债券,我们在2014年3月以兑换美国国债234个基点的价差卖出;它们目前的价差是465个基点。今年到目前为止,这些债券已经下跌了近10点,对极度追求高收益率的投资者来讲非常有吸引力,因为他们在交易中收获了7.35%的收益率;不过,我们仍然不会去触摸这些纸券。

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