每日新闻更新 — 美联储会议之后市场一片寂静 The Daily Update – Muted markets follows Fed

昨晚相对充满鹰派的 FOMC 会议开完之后,我们注意到市场的反应是一片寂静;在这次会议上,美联储加息25个基点之后,价格基本上已经定位在1.75%-2.00%。但是,值得注意的是,美国国债的曲线变得平坦,2年期和10年期的点差下降到40个基点之下,到了2007年9月份的水平(在撰写本文时)。与此同时,美元贬值; 这也可能是因为美国和中国之间的贸易紧张关系之火被重新点燃的缘故,我们期待得到进一步的消息,因为双方都说他们最早将在明天公布关税清单。

就预测而言,美联储更新的数据是:失业预期为3.6%,增长至2.8%,核心 PCE 至2%。在通胀方面,在油价上涨的背景下,在最近头条新闻对此事的期待回升之后,美联储主席鲍威尔(Powell)重申,面对一个目标实现过度的问题人们需要容忍;他还说美联储“还没有准备好宣布已经取得了通胀问题的胜利”。

至于其他的修正,受一名成员向上修正的影响(所以说中央银行仍然是分裂的),在今年进一步加息的情况下,点状图的价格更高(使得加息总共达到了4次,所以接下来还有两次加息)。然而,彭博社(目前)仍旧定位于在9月份还有一次加息,此外,鲍威尔重申要逐步实现正常化。我们也听说,从明年开始,美联储将在每次会议结束后召开新闻发布会,而不是每季度一次; 尽管在这个紧缩周期的整个过程中,央行已经明确地通过电报将任何和所有的加息机会都通报了出去,但是加息的机会比那些没有施压的会议要高,从而消除了一些可预测性。

有趣的是,中国人民银行在美联储加息后一直没有增加它的回购利率;在美国紧缩周期期间,中国人民银行已经四次提高了货币市场的利率。继美联储在3月份加息之后,中国人民银行确实声明过,他们并不保证将继续跟随美联储提高货币市场的利率。随着这个国家继续努力减少债务,我们期望,中国人民银行将保持一个中立的立场,但是可能会随后下调存款准备金率,尤其是在今天上午发布的5月份整体上比较疲软的活动数据系列之后。

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