每日新闻更新 — 非农就业数据 The Daily Update – Non-farm payrolls

今天发布的5月份非农就业数据显示,新增的就业岗位为22.3万,高于要创建19万个就业岗位的预期,尽管上个月的数字被下修5000个之后达到了15.9万。与前一个月的数据3.9%相比,该月的失业率数据为3.8%,就业参与率从62.8%小幅度降至62.7%。同比每小时平均收入为2.7%,与上个月的同比数据2.6%相比稍微高出预期一点。   

就在撰稿时,出于对这些数字的反应,美国国债的交易稍微有点走弱,但是之前在考虑了特朗普早些时候发的推特之后,原来的态势就已经有所削弱 — 特朗普的推特是说,“期望今天早上8点半的时候看到就业数字”。我们更倾向于将投资组合定位处于曲线较长的一端,并偏向较高质量的信用,因为我们认为美联储已经走在了曲线的前头。

随着阿根廷、土耳其和意大利发生的危机,对于市场来讲,五月份走下来成了多事之月。除了这种不确定性,在贸易讨论之前美国继续选择的对中国商品征收关税的强硬的贸易政策,以及希望落实但尚未落实的《北美自由贸易协定》,也使得整个事态雪上加霜。美欧之间紧张的贸易局势已经升级:不仅在美国退出伊朗(核)协议的问题上出现分歧,而且对伊朗实施了制裁以及该制裁对欧洲产生的连锁效应,而且还在月底的时候宣布,撤销美国免征欧盟、加拿大和墨西哥铝和钢的关税的豁免。保护主义对(经济)增长不利,并带来明显的下行风险。在这样一个不确定性的背景下,我们倾向于将投资定位于债权国家中的更高质量的信用。

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