每日新闻更新 — 对土耳其的垃圾级别评定 The Daily Update – Turkey Junk

根据彭博社的“世界篮子”,土耳其里拉年初至今仍面临压力,兑美元汇率已经下跌超过20%,事实上里拉是今年迄今为止表现最差的货币。弱势里拉正在对当地企业造成严重的破坏,以至于当地企业已经开始表达他们对由于货币波动而无法经营日常业务的担心,而且人们越来越害怕债务危机的发生。

评级机构也对土耳其的未来变得更加悲观 — 惠誉将其2018年的预测增长率从昨天的4.7%下调至3.6%; 这是惠誉在1月份将土耳其的长期评级下调一级至垃圾级BB+之后进行的。标准普尔评级为BB-,而穆迪在3月份将其评级下调一级至Ba2,之后不久,在6月初发出了负面观察信号。

在本周末即将举行的选举之前(从2019年11月起就有许多怀疑这是因为货币疲软和经济紧张的后果),我们可能会看到里拉要经受进一步的压力。然而,同样令人担忧的是,该国债券可能会被进一步抛售。若以15年美元基准为例,该债券2017年底收益率为5.72%,此后已经扩大了225个基点至7.9%。如果我们看一下当地债务市场就不难发现,就在昨天,土耳其发行了一批土耳其5年期17.24%的固定债券,要比今年年初的美元基准5年期债券的交易价多出525个基点;投资者今年不会希望在土耳其身上动多少心思。

此外,土耳其的5年期信用违约掉期(CDS)交易价格为330个基点,比目前报价为158个基点的俄罗斯的高出一倍。尽管给出的收益率很高,但长期以来我们一直认为土耳其是一个我们不会投资的国家,主要是由于它的净外国资产排名较低 — 2星级,缺乏相对的风险调整后的价值,不稳定的经济基础,以及最近的垃圾级别的评定。

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