每日新闻更新 — 智利前进联盟 The Daily Update – Vamos Chile

智利近期的经济数据令人鼓舞。第一季度经济同比增长4.2%,尽管这是从2017年第一季度的低位恢复而来,但也是过去4年来最快的一次。国内经济强劲发展,同比增长3.8%,固定投资继续回升,同比增长3.6%。出口同比增长7.2%:受益于铜价的回升,采矿业同比增长了19.3%。经合组织(OECD)最近还将其2018年对智利国内生产总值增长的预测上调至3.6%。

自从今年3月以来,塞巴斯蒂安·皮涅拉(Sebastien Piñera)总统就一直在执政,其政府的政策项目正初见端倪。他上周表示,鉴于‘我们继承的财政困难和社会改革的广度和紧迫性,以及尚需完成的公共工程项目’,公司税率将维持在目前的水平不变。然而,他表示将把重点放在简化税制并鼓励公司投资方面。政府还谈到对教育、医疗保健、养老金制度和基础设施的改善问题。智利国会支离破碎,皮涅拉中右翼智利前进联盟没有立法多数,因此在选择政策变化时需要多一些明智。

2017年智利的财政赤字略高于国内生产总值的2.8%,解决这个问题是当前政府的一个重要目标,因为智利的政府债务水平已经从2012年的约12%上升至2017年底的24%。在最近的一次采访中,财政部长菲利佩·拉腊因表示,政府将在6至8年的时间内努力消除结构性赤字。5月份,政府宣布打算削减赤字,目标是在4年内削减50亿美元的预算,从已经宣布的首期5亿美元的削减开始,但是,正如拉腊因所指出的那样,一年内每多增长1%就会带来6亿美元的额外收入。因此,经济增长和财政审慎的结合对于实现这一目标可能很重要。

拉腊因指出,政府希望重新获得他们在信用评级上失去的分数,但这是一个长期的目标。在这方面解决财政赤字和上升的债务水平将是非常重要的。智利依然保持着强劲的信用评级,分别被穆迪和标准普尔评定为(LT 外汇)Aa3(负面)和 A+(稳定),反映出其财务和机构层面的优势。

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