每日新闻更新 — 考虑债权人对债务人 The Daily Update – Think creditors vs debtors

本周早些时候,MSCI宣布,到2019年6月份的时候分两步将沙特阿拉伯纳入新兴市场股票指数之中。在此之前,今年早些时候(MSCI)宣布富时罗素新兴市场指数也将从2019年3月起(分阶段)把沙特阿拉伯包括进来。我们期望沙特阿拉伯及其发行人将继续在全球股票和债券指数中发挥更加突出的作用,特别是如果沙特阿美公司的上市计划如期进行的话。我们认为,对于2017年国内生产总值为6840亿美元的经济体来说,沙特阿拉伯在指数中并没有得到充分的显示。

尽管如此,我们并不认为沙特阿拉伯是一个“新兴市场”;我们不倾向于将市场分类为“新兴”市场和“发达”市场;我们更愿意以债权人和债务人的角度来考虑我们的世界。沙特阿拉伯拥有强大的海外净资产,符合我们对债权国和那些海外净负债低于国内生产总值的50%的国家的头寸的条件。国际货币基金组织的研究表明,超过这个门槛的海外净负债就被视为它的外部危机的风险在增加,正如我们在过去几周所看到的那样,随着美联储继续收紧并控制美元流动性,一些债务人的资产市场感受到了压力。

鉴于其强劲的资产负债表,在欧洲债券市场沙特阿拉伯相对来讲不经常发行债券:只有在2016年10月份的时候,它才首次推出了175亿美元的多档债券。科威特也是在2017年3月首次推出了两档80亿美元的债券;顺便提一下,科威特被纳入2019年MSCI观察名单,从“前沿”地位被重新分类为EM地位。作为对2014年油价崩溃的反应,这些国家把国际债券市场视为一个资金来源,以便帮助资助赤字,而不是完全依靠其资产缓冲和主权财富基金。鉴于他们强有力的优越条件,我们认为这些类型的债券发行者是一个有吸引力的地方,以我们的观点,地域方面的很多风险在市场定价时已经得到了考虑。在我们的估值模型中,沙特阿拉伯(穆迪/惠誉评为A1/A+)看上去很有吸引力:例如,以美元计值的沙特2046年期4.5%的国际债券在交易中约便宜4个信用等级,收益率为5.1%。  

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