每日新闻更新 — 国债收益率、TINA贸易和特朗普关税 The Daily Update – Treasury Yields, The TINA Trade and Trump Tariffs

(自6月11日以来)股市继续2-3周的抛售,标准普尔和道指分别下跌超过2%和4%,美国10年期国债收益率(从本月早些时候的3%)今天跌至2.85%以下,30年期国债收益率从3.15%下降至3%,这是在昨天强劲的拍卖显示出这些水平的支撑后发生的。与此同时,彭博社在他们的头版头条结结巴巴地说“对冲基金的经理听到市场过去崩盘的回声了”,其中格雷·格科菲(Greg Coffey)等人大呼“我们已经遭2000年的幽灵附身了”。

我们当然不热衷于那些追求点击率的新闻网站和报纸,对它们的头版新也并不缺乏平静的心态 — 几个星期前,它们就在呼吁10年期收益率迅速达到3.5%-4%的范围内 — 但我们确实相信,新闻的情绪指标是能够给人以启示的,自从4月份暴跌至18个月低点以来,再加上过去几个月整个媒体中出现更平衡的/更悲观的意见这一不可否认的趋,我们一直认为其前景是负面的。

由于标准普尔500指数的股息收益率仅为1.92%,以及人们普遍认为近期股票表现整体上是所谓的TINA交易(股票没有替代品)— 股票估值和资金流向对情绪变化越来越敏感。经济增长的前景变得温和,收入预测和市盈率同时下降,国债持续稳定在一个区间内,这种情况在这样的局面下就显得更加明显;到本周末,几乎可以肯定的是,美国10年期国债几乎完全在2.8%-3%区间内交易已经有5个月了。

另外值得注意的是对2-10年期和2-30年期的美国国债期限点差的收紧。现在它们分别为33个基点和48个基点,最近我们已经注意到,6月份的紧缩(分别从43个基点和60个基点)几乎完全来自较长期限端收益率的下降,而不是由于短期一端的上涨而形成的熊平 — 这种情况从2017年9月到2018年5月中旬走势一直稳定,其阻力位略低于2.6%的收益率。

债券投资者可以感谢对美国关税的持续担忧以及亚特兰大联邦储备银行今年GDPNow对本季节注资的大幅度下降,(从原来的2.5%)到1.9%以及越来越多的市场人士对提高2018年股票和国债收益率的呼吁。我们一定会关注新闻和市场情绪在整个七月和夏季的其余时间会有怎样的发展。

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