每日新闻更新 — 债券通项目推出已经一年,现在的情况怎么样 The Daily Update – Bond Connect - One Year On

2017年7月3日是债券通(Bond Connect)推出的纪念日,未来几年可能会被人们铭记为人民币走上国际化道路的分水岭。如果从狭隘的角度来观察,债券通的重要性有时可能会被忽略,所以在我们该项目被推出一周年到来之际,让我们重新审视一下这个计划和它其对中国金融市场的影响,然后再看看它对全球金融体系的长期影响。

首先,债券通究竟是什么?该计划允许国际投资者进入通常被称为“北行”交易的国内债券市场。该计划实际上是面向两个方向的,尽管目前用来促进资金朝另一个方向流动的“南向”尚未得到批准。原来的RQFII需要一个预先批准的配额,其处理时间比债券通的时间更长而且程序也更为复杂,但对于以前不得不使用像QFII这样的其他项目的外国人来说,债券通就是一个简单得多的机制。

中国是世界第三大债券市场,发行者是世界上相对较少的债权国之一,10年期国债收益率目前为3.55%。令很多人吃惊的是,人民币在过去十年中一直是世界上最强大的货币之一,受益于该国数量巨大的经常账户的顺差,其绝对值为世界第三,仅次于德国和日本。

学术研究支持这样一种观点,即长期累积经常项目盈余的国家往往会看到其货币升值(反之亦然),而我们的分析表明,当考虑到利率差异因素的时候,该货币兑美元每年可以升值4%。若经过多年的积累,对于那些原本只能持有诸如美元和英镑这样的货币的投资者来讲,这就意味着相当可观的回报。美国和英国是全球经常账户赤字最大的国家,这标志着它们就像是低价值的商店。考虑到外国人持有中国债券市场的份额不足2%,这一数字随着时间的推移只能增加,债券通的主要好处之一就是有助于促进这些资金的流入。

除了这并不是关键的故事之外,这可能就是故事的结局。大多数人似乎已经忽略的是这样一个事实,即国际投资者流入量的增加会导致中国资本外流的可能性,而不会对汇率施加下行的压力。这个观点跟大多数人认为从中国外流的资金越多就等同于人民币越疲软这种观点是冲突的。

为了理解这一点,我们需要更加密切关注向境外流动的资本的渠道,其中最重要的是QDII和RQDII。例如,前者获得了大部分媒体的关注,因为该渠道允许中国资本流入像美元和英镑这样(所谓)的海外的硬通货中。QDII渠道于2018年4月重新开放,但额外配额仅增加了90亿美元,这在全球金融市场中只占很小一部分。

相对来讲,RQDII的报道较少,它将人民币从国内市场引入国际市场,主要要求是这些资产要么必须以人民币计价,要么就对冲成人民币。这为什么这么重要?直到最近,中国机构在进入国际市场的能力受到了严重的限制,因此他们的投资组合多元化程度较差,包括中国现金、中国债券、中国股票和中国房地产。展望未来,这种组合将会改变,而且这些数额会令人难以置信。

各种估计之间有差距,但广泛被接受的数额是以数万亿美元计算的。这将在未来几十年对全球整个金融体系产生重大影响。这就是为什么我们相信债券通在未来几年将被视为关键机制之一,不仅是因为它允许资金流入中国,而且也因为它在帮助促进资本流向国外过程中发挥的作用。

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