每日新闻更新 — 债券通 — 故事继续 The Daily Update – Bond Connect - The Story Continues

正如我们昨天在每日新闻更新中所提到的那样,随着人民币国际化的继续,我们预计中国政府债券的表现将明显优于大市。

因此,在人们进入的全球金融市场并不稳定的情况下,投资者将来会持有更多人民币的事实几乎是板上钉钉的事情;这里唯一真正的争论是,这些持有的资产最终将会如何产生。资金流入中国的增加的另一面显然是资金从其他地方的流出。显然,在其他条件相同的情况下,美国国债和德国国债等主要市场将出现一些抛售压力,但由于彭博全球综合指数中国债券市场的未来权重估计仅为5.5%,因此抛售压力可能很容易被吸收。

更有趣的是,摩根大通EMBi中国的估计权重为33%(无上限)。显然,在基金经理们将资金从新兴市场的其他国家重新分配到中国之时,有可能面临最大压力的货币是负债较重的那种国家的货币。在美联储紧缩的环境中,各国被迫竞争日益萎缩的全球资本,尤其是美元,负债较多的国家便成为最为脆弱的国家。

我们要强调的三个国家就是匈牙利、土耳其和巴西。这三个国家的净外债均超过其国内生产总值的50%,这个水平常常被理解为该国的金融出现了麻烦。因此,虽然债券通对人民币和中国债券市场有明显的好处,但这是以牺牲一些新兴国家的利益为代价的,而这些新兴国家的债务在指数中所占比重过大,原因很简单,债务水平太高。

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