每日新闻更新 — 中国的火力 The Daily Update – China’s Firepower

本周我们听说中国已采取一系列措施来应对特朗普贸易战对其经济特别是人民币的潜在的不良影响。我们经常谈到这个国家为了维持稳定可以部署的大量火力,最近的行动已经显示出这些火力如何可以得以利用。“前瞻性”财政政策和“合理充足”的流动性状况被认为是支持增长和结构改革的主要因素。政策制定者还将继续保持适当水平的社会融资,并将提出一些项目,以实现发展目标和改善国民的生计。(国家)还将鼓励地方政府发行约1.35万亿元人民币(约合2000亿美元)的特殊债券,用于资助当地的基础设施项目。此时,货币政策既不收紧也不放松。

在财政宽松方面,据说政府正在考虑减少税务和收费,更多公司将通过增加的对研发支出和应税收入的扣除来获得优惠政策。据新华社报道,中国总理李克强昨天在政府会议上表示,“中国将更好地利用其财政和金融政策,支持扩大内需,结构性调整,推动实体经济的发展。”该报道接着说,“会议表示,中国将保持宏观政策的稳定,避免采取过强的刺激政策,在面对外部不确定性时,政府将进行有针对性的及时监管,以确保经济在合理范围内发挥作用。”中国最新公布的2018年第一季度的国内生产总值仍高于政策制定者“约6.5%”的目标,同比增长达到了6.7%;因此,如果有必要,在不需要任何激烈的货币政策宽松或使用国家3.1万亿美元巨额外汇储备的情况下,仍然还有让增长变得温和的空间。

至于人民币,今早它兑美元汇率突破6.82,这使得市场感到惊慌。在此之前,特朗普发表评论称,人民币“已经像石头一样下跌”,并表示,有些国家,包括中国,“一直在操纵货币,并将汇率保持得更低”。正如我们一次又一次提到的那样,我们认为,在中国推动以消费为驱动的增长改革之时,货币贬值并不符合中国的利益。此外,据一位发言人称,“我们国家良好的经济基本面为人民币提供了支撑,中国不希望通过竞争性贬值来增加出口”。由于人民币目前跌至12个月低位,政策制定者强调他们对最近公布的缓和进一步贬值和维持稳定经济增长的措施有信心,我们仍然认为,从长期来看,人民币兑美元将继续大幅升值,因此,我们将此视为买入人民币的良机。

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