每日新闻更新 —欧洲央行、美国的国内生产总值,我知道我对了。 The Daily Update - ECB, US GDP, I knew I was right.

和市场观察人士预期的一样,欧洲央行在昨天的会议上将其政策利率、量化宽松政策立场以及它对利率的前瞻性指导保持不变。德拉吉(Draghi)行长称特朗普和容克达成的交易是个“好兆头”,但仍然注意到贸易前景存在着下行的风险。他继续将增长前景称为“基本平衡”,并指出近期的调查数据有所改善。在问答环节中,德拉吉表示,欧洲央行没有讨论其再投资政策,并表示欧洲央行对利率的前瞻指导有助于将当前市场定价与自己的预期相吻合,这可能表明他对目前市场对2019年中期之后进行加息的共识是满意的。

令人吃惊的是,市场有可能开始比当前人们预期的速度更快地进行加息,尽管地中海国家仍然在拖累着经济增长,但是目前的经济活动还是比较强劲的,所以,加息是我们不会放弃的事情。然而,德国、法国和其他更多北方国家的通货膨胀率已经接近2.3%的水平,应当引起关注。

今天我们得到了2018年第二季度美国国内生产总值折合成年率后的环比增长率预计将达到4%至4.5%左右,这受益于从第一季度非常低的从0.9%增长到大约3%的个人消费量的突然增长的推动。有趣的是,市场普遍认为核心个人消费支出(PCE)环比增长2.2%,低于第一季度的2.3%。此外,我们也有对国内生产总值的基准变化的计算;这通常意味着对国内生产总值的一些修订。

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