每日新闻更新 — 国际货币基金组织评论全球经济的增长 The Daily Update – IMF Global Growth

上周,国际货币基金组织(IMF)警告说,特朗普政府发起的持续性和不断升级的全球贸易冲突有可能破坏经济的复苏并抑制中期增长的前景。国际货币基金组织认为,到2020年的时候,全球经济可能会损失约0.5%的增长或约4300亿美元的国内生产总值,其中美国遭受的打击有可能会特别严重。正如国际货币基金组织所述,美国可能会发现自己“成为全球报复的焦点”,其更高比例的商品将被征收关税,“因此特别脆弱”。然而,急剧放缓的警告不仅仅是专门留给美国的,日本、欧盟和英国也面临着严重的冲击。日本的增长速度将为最慢 — 1%,英国经济增速下调至1.4%,而今年早些时候的预测为1.6%。预计今年欧元区的增长也将放缓至2.2%,而之前预测的增长则是2.4%。

除了来自国际贸易的较弱水平的直接威胁之外,国际货币基金组织表示,更多地采用保护主义措施可能会提高消费品价格,破坏全球供应链,阻碍商业投资,从而减缓提升生产力技术的传播。国际货币基金组织首席经济学家莫里斯·奥布斯菲尔德(Maurice Obstfeld)警告说,“各国必须抵制眼光向内的思维,不要忘记,在一系列共同关心的问题上,多边合作是必不可少的”。

虽然基金没有对其2018年或2019年的全球增长预测3.9%做出任何改变,但随后的声明确实强调了“增长变得更加不均匀,前景面临的风险正在增加”。该基金认为,世界经济在大约2年前开始趋于平稳,还指出“在国际贸易紧张局势升级的情况下,大约两年前开始的大范围的全球扩张已趋于平稳并变得不那么平衡”,另外还指出“我们继续预测全球经济增长率今年和明年都为3.9%左右,但我们同时也判断,最终结局会变得更糟的可能性已经增加,即使短期内也是如此”。

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