每日新闻更新 — 非农就业数据 The Daily Update – Non Farm Payrols

一夜之间,随着美国确认对中国进口的340亿美元的产品征收关税的决定生效,美中贸易关系进一步恶化。中国表示,它已被迫进行报复并采取了对策。我们认为贸易环境的持续恶化是对全球增长的负面风险。

毫不奇怪,6月份(于昨天发布的)FOMC 会议纪要的贸易讨论是一个相关的领域。该会议纪要指出,“许多地区联系人对于关税和其他拟议的国内外贸易限制对未来投资活动可能产生的不利影响表示担忧;一些地区的联系人表示,由于贸易政策的不确定性,资本支出计划已经缩减或推迟。”此外,“大多数与会者指出,与贸易政策相关的不确定性和风险已经加剧,并担心这种不确定性和风险最终可能对商业情绪和投资支出产生负面影响。”

6月份美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)在欧洲央行论坛上就中央银行问题组织的政策小组发言时,也对贸易局势发表了评论:“贸易政策的变化可能导致我们不得不对前景建进行质疑”,以及“我们第一次听到有关推迟投资、推迟招聘、推迟做出决策的决定。这是一件新鲜事。如果您问它是否已在预测之中,是否已在前景之中,答案是否定的。从经济表现中您看不到这一点”。澳大利亚储备银行行长菲利普·洛(Philip Lowe)也在该小组中;他把这种日益恶化的贸易形势描述为“令人非常不安”。

今天的6月份非农就业数据继续显示出强劲的劳动力市场:增加了21.3万个工作岗位,高于预期的19.5万个工作岗位,上个月的数字上调至24.4万个。与前一个月的数据3.8%相比,该月的失业率数据增加至4%,就业参与率增加至62.9%。重要的是,同比每小时平均收入稍微低于预期一点,与上个月的同比数据2.7%相比增长了2.7%,

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