每日新闻更新 — 石油和贸易 The Daily Update – Oil & Trade

在原油基准发布了自2016年9月以来的最大单日跌幅(周三)之后,周四公布的国际能源机构(IEA)的7月份报告受到了一定的关注,(原油基准价格)在收盘时下跌6.9%至73.40美元。一些利比亚的供应正在恢复以及美中贸易紧张局势不断升级的消息一直是令市场不安的因素,周二美国宣布它正在寻求对2000亿美元的中国进口产品征收额外关税。

国际能源机构的报告警告说,“来自中东海湾国家和俄罗斯的产量增加,尽管受欢迎,但却牺牲了世界上闲置产能缓冲,而该闲置产能缓冲有可能已经被过度使用达到了极限。”除了伊朗和委内瑞拉的供应风险之外,国际能源机构还表达了对利比亚供应可靠性的担忧:“对主要基础设施的一系列袭击使得7月产量从大约一年来人们看到的接近1百万桶/日的水平下降至约50万桶/日。在撰写本文时,情况似乎有所改善,但我们无法知道(该供应的)稳定是否能够得到恢复。如此大生产量处于脆弱的状态,这一事实显然令人担忧。

在撰写本文时,布伦特原油交易价格约为每桶73.50美元,本周下跌,但重要的是,年初至今仍然增加了将近10%。海湾合作委员会国家,如科威特、阿联酋和沙特阿拉伯,和俄罗斯明显受益,因为高于预算的石油价格为他们带来了更大的预算上的灵活性。据说,俄罗斯直接投资基金首席执行官基里尔·德米特里耶夫(Kirill Dmitriev)在接受采访时表示,由于减产导致油价上涨,俄罗斯预算的额外收入超过了635亿美元(4兆卢布)。

相比之下,欧盟发布了夏季中期经济预测,其中增长预测被降低,理由是“临时因素”和“贸易紧张局势的加剧,还有油价上涨以及一些成员国的政治不确定性”。目前预测2018年的增长率为2.1%,2019年欧盟和欧元区的增长率均为2%,比春季预测要低0.2%。经济和金融事务、税务和海关事务专员皮埃尔·莫斯科维奇(Pierre Moscovici)在总结这一情况时说:“欧洲经济的增长将保持弹性”,但“与春季相比略有下调的情况反映出贸易局势的紧张和政策的不确定性以及能源价格的上涨对(市场)信心的影响。尽管保护主义措施的进一步升级是明显的下行风险,我们的预测是2018年和2019年经济将持续增长。贸易战不会产生任何赢家,只会造成大量的伤亡。”

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