每日新闻更新 — “关税是最好使的!” The Daily Update – "Tariffs Are The Greatest!"

上周,欧盟与日本签署了世界上最大的双边贸易协定 — 以减少葡萄酒和奶酪向东流动以及车辆零部件向西运输时造成的摩擦 — 这是在经历了过长达五年的筹备之后才出台的。然而,本周却换了另外一番天地,欧盟面临着跨大西洋贸易关系的进一步倒退,此时面对特朗普提出的不断升级的贸易要求它的外交官们坐卧不安,不知所措。根据唐纳德·特朗普昨天的说法,“关税最好使!”— 当然,除非像对欧盟对波旁威士忌和自行车征收30亿英镑报复性关税一样对美国征收关税。

今天晚些时候,欧盟委员会主席容克(Juncker)和欧盟贸易专员马克斯特罗姆(Malmstrom)在白宫会见特朗普总统,讨论关于“征收关税、贸易壁垒和政府补贴”谈判的意愿,特别是关于对汽车征收关税的《行业内多边协议》和/或一个对一大系列商品征收零关税的协定。为了消除人们对任何和解语气的奢望,特朗普总统在两条有揭示意义的推文中表达了他的出发点:“关税是最好使的!一个在贸易上对美国采取不公平待遇的国家要么达成一项公平交易,要么就受到关税的打击。其实就这么简单 — 现在每个人都在讨论(这件事情)!请记住,我们就是遭别人不断抢劫的“存钱罐”。一切问题都会得到解决!”然后又说,“欧盟明天要来华盛顿谈判贸易协议。我替他们想好了一个办法。美国和欧盟都放弃所有关税、贸易壁垒和政府补贴的做法!只有做到这一步,才能最终被称为市场自由和公平贸易!希望他们能这样做,我们已经做好准备 — 但他们不会的!”

但是美国还没有准备好撤回“所有的关税、贸易壁垒和政府补贴的做法!”:且不说最新的对铝和钢铁征收的关税,看一看对小货车征收的所谓的25%的彻头彻尾的所谓的“爱国”关税就明白了。同样,一项成功的双边协议也是不太可能的,因为任何有利的美国和欧盟之间的协议也必须适用于其他国际贸易协定。着名经济学家埃斯瓦尔·普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说:“特朗普仍在寻求欧盟对美国的要求投降而非妥协。”但容克当然不是一个很容易妥协的人。希望容克和特朗普之间这次融洽的交往有助于防止超级大国之间的友谊进一步恶化;但是位于大塘两岸的双方的汽车制造商正在准备迎接隐隐约约正在出现的触碰他们底线的风险,市场将倾听它们在这个收获季节的成绩和今天会议的结果,当然还要看特朗普接下来发出什么样的推文。不必屏住呼吸;记住上周国际货币基金组织在报告中的警告即可 — 到2020年的时候,进一步的贸易战升级将使全球增长减少0.5%,国内生产总值将损失约4300亿美元。

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