每日新闻更新 — 土耳其 — 将它纳入大家庭之内 The Daily Update – The Daily Update - Turkey - Keeping it in the Family

周五,惠誉将土耳其的长期信用评级下调一级至BB,负面展望;这跟穆迪的标准是一致的,比标准普尔的BB-评级高一级。由于经济基本面看起来越来越不稳定和里拉崩溃,我们上个月在选举前就特别表示过担忧,里拉今年迄今为止下跌了20.5%。此外,6月份通货膨胀率在里拉走弱的背景下触及了15年来的最高点15.39%。就其他关键经济点而言,惠誉表示,土耳其今年的信贷账户赤字预计将扩大至6.1%,还表示他们“认为由于经常账户赤字的扩大、更具挑战性的全球外部融资环境、通胀上升以及汇率暴跌对拥有以外币为计价制度的大量债务的私营部门的影响这些因素宏观经济稳定的下行风险加剧。”此外,“最近几个月经济政策可信度已经恶化,6月份选举后的初步政策行动更加剧了不确定性。这种环境将为引导经济的软着陆带来挑战。”

令不稳定性加剧的是,众所周知,最近宣誓就职的埃尔多安(Erdogan)总统并不是高利率的忠实粉丝,就在上周,他任命了自己的女婿贝拉特·阿尔巴拉克(Berat Albayrak)为土耳其金融和财政部长。这一举措似乎令市场不安。阿尔巴拉克确实试图平息市场的不安,承诺尽一切可能控制市场状况;然而,评级机构穆迪强调了对该国央行独立程度的担忧。鉴于该部门在解决土耳其经济和金融体系日益严重的不平衡问题方面的重要作用,穆迪表示,这项任命属于信用负面的举措。正如惠誉所说的那样:土耳其需要进一步的借款来为其预算赤字提供资金。“土耳其庞大的外部融资需求使其难以承受各种冲击”。评级机构估计土耳其今年外部借款接近3000亿美元;随着投资者继续抛售银行股票,这笔债务可能会承受压力,而这可能会导致债务违约。

土耳其30年期美元债券的收益率目前为7.5%左右,风险调整后的预期回报和收益率为21.25%,然而,若使用较好的BB评级,这种债券提供的信用级别保护还不到1.3个级别。该国5年期信用违约互换(CDS)的交易价格为325个基点,仅比突尼斯的交易价格基点略微窄一点。虽然这些水平对于有些人来说可能看起来令人满意,但我们不会去触及土耳其(的债券),无论它看起来多么“有吸引力”,这个国家被(我们)拒于可投资的国家之外,完全是因为它的两星级的海外净资产(NFA)位置。另一方面,7星级的阿布扎比更引人注目。它的30年期基准美元(债券)的收益率为4.4%,提供的预期回报和收益率高于16%。诚然,这并不像土耳其的收益率那样具有吸引力,但是,标准普尔和惠誉将这一债券评级为AA,价格只有3.7美元,阿布扎比的5年期信用违约互换仅为65个基点;所以这是一个更“安全的”的选择。

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