每日新闻更新 — 实际收益陷阱 The Daily Update – The Real Yield Trap

在较短的时间范围内,投资的实际收益率并不那么重要,但随着时间的推移,特定投资的贬值确实需要注意;从历史上看,它仍然是一种很好的衡量价值的标准。

当人们走向特别情况和长期编造的调整期时 — 央行将其称为货币工具箱,什么来自调整的反弹,什么反弹回去 — 利率水平的修正有时是极端的。

5年期的欧元曲线实际收益率为-2.23%,10年期略微好一点位于-1.60%。正如市场预期的那样,最新的欧元平均读数为2%。然而,德国和法国的通货膨胀率同比上升2.3%,但它们可是欧元区最大的经济体。欧洲央行现在需要注意了,信誉差距可能会不断变糟。

当10年期德国国债从0.40%的收益率变为0.70%时,债券持有人将失去3点的价格。为了消除通货膨胀造成的影响 — 即拥有一个趋平的实际收益率曲线 — 要使投资不随着时间的推移而下降,10年期德国国债的价格需要下跌14.5点,短期价格需要上涨260个基点。

我们认为这很快就会成为一个问题;第一个迹象是欧洲投资者正在从美元撤回,因为套期保值成本太高,而这样做是一种短期策略,而且相当短视,除非你是只有2天视野的交易商/在做对冲基金。

欧洲投资者似乎已经大规模重返欧元收益率曲线。这完全是由于欧元/美元的对冲成本(太高)所致。目前他们关心的是,对冲的成本每年约为2.5%,这是短期的,利差很快将会收紧,然而,跟债券利率的几天走势相比,对冲的成本还是便宜的。债券收益的一个对等的移动就可以消除留在美国曲线内的成本,该曲线是根据当前的形势而定价的,并且整个曲线都有实际收益率,与差不多任何期限的债券的欧洲曲线的投资相比可能更便宜一些。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.