每日新闻更新 — 第三次幸运? The Daily Update – Third time lucky?

墨西哥将于7月1日举行总统选举,显而易见此时该国政治命运的浪潮看上去对安德烈斯·曼努埃尔·洛佩斯·奥布拉多尔(Andrés Manuel López Obrador)(又叫做AMLO)非常有利。这是极左派候选人AMLO第三次参加总统竞选,但处于这个民调位置看起来这次他的竞选已经获得了选民的足够支持。最近的民意调查,如Consulta Mitofsky,(不包括未参与民调者)显,AMLO以48.1%的票数大幅度领先。革命制度党(PRI)的中间派技术统治论候选人乔斯·安东尼奥·米德(José Antonio Meade)和国家行动党和民主革命党(PAN-PRD)联盟的里卡多·安纳亚(Ricardo Anaya)的支持率远远落后,分别以22.5%和25.5%的选票正在角逐第二名。独立候选人海梅·罗德里格斯(安纳亚Jaime Rodriguez)只有3.9%的选票。但是,由于在这些民调中未参与民调的人数相当多(据Mitofsky的统计是21.5%),因此在解读这个结果时应当谨慎。

投票者对恩里克·培尼亚·涅托(Enrique Peña Nieto)执政下的革命制度党感到失望,此外还把腐败和暴力列为主要关切的对象。这里显然还有改进的余地:2016年世界银行控制腐败指数对墨西哥的评分很低。这不利于米德的竞选,安纳亚也一直在努力远离对他的贪污指控,而AMLO已经将腐败列为他议程中的一条关键原则。

因此,人们普遍预计AMLO将成为下一任总统,但有点不太清楚的是,在7月1日举行的众议院和参议院的选举中他的莫雷纳党究竟能够获得多少票数。鉴于此,尽管我们认为该国的制度框架很坚强,很难逆转已经进行的大量改革,但是AMLO的政策方向(例如能源改革和北美自由贸易协定)仍旧存在着一丝不确定因素。AMLO在担任墨西哥市市长期间也采取了务实的方法,在竞选期间也表现出一些实用主义的迹象。

有趣的是,自6月14日收盘以来,墨西哥比索兑美元汇率上涨了4.9%(以现货为基础)。墨西哥银行在6月21日将利率上调25个基点至7.75%,这可能起到了帮助的作用,但比索看起来已经超卖,AMLO的胜利在很大程度上已经成为被考虑的因素。墨西哥合众国2040年期的6.05%也从6月12日的低点反弹超过了4点。

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