每日新闻更新 — 贸易战争;当心特朗普 The Daily Update – Trade Wars; Watch Out Trump

在我们的由两部分组成的日报中,我们将讨论我们对特朗普政府关税的看法:

唐纳德·特朗普做出的发起全球贸易战的决定,以及随后美国政府的升级可能会对世界经济造成极大的破坏。通过特斯拉最近决定在中国提高价格以转嫁额外成本,人们可以看出这对消费者有何等的影响。这反过来又降低了消费者的消费能力。在消费奢侈品方面,一种选择是购买更便宜的替代品,还有一种选择就是完全推迟消费,但对于更基本的商品来说,上述选择通常无法使用。因此,特朗普政府进一步升级的贸易战可能会导致消费者支出的放缓,而且美联储仍处于紧缩状态,这将为全球再次陷入经济衰退以及与其伴随的全球金融危机创造了条件。

美国政府陷入困境的根源是该国经常账户上不可持续的也是世界上最大的巨额赤字。再通俗一点说就是,美国的支出超出了它的承受能力,而这种情况正在导致美国债务的迅速增加;从绝对意义上说,该国的债务也是世界上最大的。这导致全球范围内的失衡。不幸的是现在的这种不平衡比2008的时候要大得多,因此由此而带来的潜在影响可能会比那时大得多。

造成这个问题美国只是应该被责备的一个部分;全球失衡的另外一个重要驱动因素便是欧盟,其中以德国为主要的罪魁祸首。在具有不同生产力水平的国家之间修订汇率将不可避免地以最有效的方式导致经常账户的盈余并给那种不具备如此竞争力的国家带来赤字。德国就是一个极端的例子,经常账户盈余为3470亿美元。

虽然中国是世界上第三大盈余国(仅次于日本),但这仅占其国内生产总值的1.2%。而荷兰,一个人口只有1700万的国家,世界第五大经济体,其经常账户盈余却相当于国内生产总值的9.6%,令人诧异!德国占国内生产总值8.2%的数字几乎也是同样地糟糕。不平衡的规模是通过一种天真的政治信念来实现的,即货币联盟是某种形式的经济解决方案;而事实上,它正在为一场重大的金融灾难埋下种子。唐纳德·特朗普的贸易战其实是其他地方做出的决定的副产品,尽管它来的并不是时候。

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