每日新闻更新 — 阿联酋和中国:更紧密的经济联系 The Daily Update - UAE-China: Closer economic ties

习近平对阿联酋的国事访问可能被媒体本周早些时候对在赫尔辛基举行的特朗普和普京会面的报道所掩盖:这次访问是7月17日至24日阿联酋和中国周活动的一部分,重点是双边关系以及加强两国之间的贸易和文化关系。重要的是,我们认为,此次活动凸显了中国的一带一路项目(BRI)(也被称为 One Belt, One Road 或者 OBOR)的重要性,这也符合阿布扎比王储谢赫·穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬(Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan)的计划,其目的是“恢复丝绸之路”的贸易路线。

丝绸之路项目旨在通过改善沿着这条连接亚洲和欧洲的历史上有名的丝绸贸易之路的经济带或者走廊的陆地和海上的联系发展经济联系。 该项目设想了一条从中亚到欧洲的陆路以及一条连接亚洲和非洲港口的海上航线。丝绸之路项目旨在建立连接中国与东南亚、巴基斯坦、蒙古以及俄罗斯、伊朗、土耳其和欧洲的网络和经济走廊。海湾合作委员会成员国并不直接位于该陆地路线上,但从逻辑上讲,它们位于拥有世界级港口的海上航线上,并且仍然是中国的重要贸易伙伴。

这次习主席访问阿联酋的重点可能是在2015年建立的用于投资能源、可再生能源和技术的100亿美元的阿联酋和中国之间的投资基金项目的基础上进一步发展与阿联酋的更紧密的联系以及和阿联酋进行合作的协议。这种持续合作可能对两国未来的贸易增长产生积极影响:阿联酋对外经济部计算,2017年阿联酋与中国之间的贸易额从去年的463亿美元增长到533亿美元。

从长远来看,丝绸之路项目表明中国在全球经济中的重要性和日益增长的影响力,这不仅表现在贸易和经济联系的深化方面,而且我们也认为,该项目在帮助中国实现人民币国际化的目标方面发挥着重要作用。在此次访问中,习主席指出,已有100多个国家和组织加入了丝绸之路项目。不同机构之间的估计有所不同,但通常会期望投资额高达1-2.5万亿美元,我们已经看到用来为该项目和丝绸之路基金提供融资的2016年亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)等机构的成立。在丝绸之路项目使得人民币的使用更加广泛的同时,我们预计,继续开放的投资渠道将涌向中国,继而促进中国在全球指数和投资者投资组合中的代表性的增加。我们认为,鉴于中美贸易紧张局势以及近期中国政策宽松的预期,近期人民币兑美元汇率的回落在这些长期积极趋势的背景下可能是暂时的。

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