每日新闻更新 —何时应该担心倒置的曲线 The Daily Update - When To Worry About An Inverted Curve

过去一周,2年期和10年期美国国债之间的期限利差平均值为25个基点 — 相当于美联储再加息一次。本周早些时候,3个月国库券收益率自2008年以来首次触及2%;这意味着十年来即使是短期债券的收益现在也第一次超过了美国股票 — 对于那些懂得股票和债券的人来说,债券正成为一种可行的选择。在本周早些时候,美联储主席杰伊·鲍威尔(Jay Powell)在向国会作证时,只用了几个即兴的词语就让市场开始猜测,他说:“鉴于就业市场强劲、通胀接近我们的目标、前景风险大致平衡,联邦公开市场委员会认为(就现在而言)最好的方法是逐步提高联邦基金利率。”

“就现在而言”让许多人怀疑美联储希望市场知道他们正在观望收益率曲线的趋平,但即便在它反转美国国债的活跃曲线的情况下也并不因为“逐步提高联邦基金利率”而感到恐慌,现在市场越来越接受这种结局,跟几个月前相比,恐惧感更少了;也许是由于2-10年期利差作为主要的风向标所指示的时间跨度有多久。它不是即刻就要灭亡的预兆,而是未来12个月左右的警示灯;鉴于任何潜在的反转都可能会在2018年底或之后发生,当人们期望再进行1至2年的重新分配资产的情况下,预计市场不会在短期内抛售股票。

目前,由于短期利率对货币政策的反应更快,而即便是在面对不断增长的供给反映出对央行的持续信心以及对中央政府和贸易争端的担心的情况下我们对30年期国债的需求似乎是无限的,对于紧缩周期而言,利差收窄是正常的。然而,值得关注的这种新生事物不是加息导致曲线的反转,而是美联储在收益率曲线反转后还在继续加息。20年前,当1998年2-10年期的利差被反转时,美联储当时的反应是进行降息。在没有金融危机的情况下,没有人期望美联储能够在短期内降息 — 但如果即使是在短期收益率超过长期的时候他们继续提高利率,人们就应该留意任何其他经济衰退以及股票的脆弱和信誉变弱的信号了。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.