每日新闻更新 — 土耳其在吞食欧洲银行业的利润 - The Daily Update - Turkey biting into European banking profits

里拉经过3天的反弹后又恢复了疲软,今天曾回升到6.3以上,现在又徘徊在6.08附近。作为对土耳其债务问题进行更加基本的评估的晴雨表,一些国际清算银行(BIS)的数据以及对里拉卖空的限制把人们的注意力从这种货币身上移开。这当然提醒了市场,贪图回报的西班牙、法国和意大利的银行已经在土耳其这块蛋糕上咬得有点太多了。事实上,分别投下830亿美元、380亿美元和170亿美元对于一个国际来说是笔巨额投资。土耳其总统认为,“利率越低,通货膨胀率就越低”。5月中旬的时候,雷克斯·塔伊普·埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的这番言论让市场目瞪口。

美国利率的上升对于像土耳其这样的美元债务过重的国家构成的风险最大。由于里拉今年迄今为止兑美元汇率下跌了三分之一,硬通货币债务已经是八个月前的负担的一倍半。但上述有关西班牙、法国和意大利的数据跟它们的银行在土耳其银行业的利益有关,跟他们的外汇贷款并不是特别有关;这些通常以其子公司有货币里拉负债的形式出现 ,因此不那么脆弱。根据德意志银行的数据,最大的未偿还贷款的奖项被英国摘取,伦敦金融城是迄今为止受土耳其经济危机影响最大的城市:300亿美元的硬通货币的贷款敞口。这远远超过跟随其后的德国和美国,这两个国家都略高于200亿美元.

在英格兰(以及欧洲),人们常说,天不下则已,一下则是倾盆大雨。伦敦市和那些敞口过大的欧洲银行最好多关注一下天气预报;英国脱欧和土耳其的乌云日益变得又厚又黑......值得庆幸的是,伦敦的实际天气预报还不错,预测周末和下一周有阳光而且暖和。

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