每日新闻更新 —土耳其在加温,NFP The Daily Update – Turkey turning up the heat, NFP

在我们等待今天的美国非农就业数据公布之时,让我们先来看看土耳其的情况。不幸的是或者幸运的是(取决于您的观点)土耳其不在我们的授权范围内,因为它只是一个两星级的国家并且被评为Ba2。但对于那些喜欢体验“狂野生活”的投资者而言,土耳其的债券和货币水平已经发展得足以让人们对其进行审视。

先从货币说起,今早的英镑兑土耳其里拉的汇率为6.625,自12个月以来已经下跌了44%,如果您将一个月的远期汇率年化,这个比例则为18%,英镑兑土耳其里拉的一个月远期汇率在6.70的时候,您购买里拉就会盈利。这不是一个建议,因为我们大多数人当需要站在一列失控的火车面前的时候都必须要认真思考以下,然而,这变得越来越有趣,并且在众所周知的美国制裁的情况下,关键问题好像是,是否所有的坏消息已经存在于目前的定价之中。

债券市场发生的情况有类似性,政府发行了当地货币里拉债券 — 在过去的12个月中,2027年2月份到期的11%的债券价格下跌了36个点,目前价格约为67.50,收益率为18.70%。2027年3月份到期的6%的美元债券的价格也下跌了,现在的收益率为7.54%,比美国国债曲线高出约442个基点,价格为90.60,在过去的12个月当中下跌了18个点。

如果晚上睡觉是首选,您可以静静地观看并等待,尽管(不知道)在当前的热浪中谁还可以睡得着;来自土耳其的更多的热浪可能成为(今年)夏天的交易。

现在让我们看看非农就业情况 — 7月份的数据刚刚发布 — (就业人数)为+157k,两个月的净修正值为+59k,最重要的平均每小时收益为0.3%,同比为2.7%。在平衡各种要素之后,总体上该报告仍然如预期一样显示出相当强劲的就业情况,而失业率则从普遍预期的4%下降至3.9%。

到目前为止,美国国债的收益率曲线的活动有限,略有趋平的态势;在经过一周的美联储会议和与其基本一致的NFP报告之后,到目前为止反应不大;周末来临之际让我们重新关注贸易战的情况。

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