每日新闻更新 — 智利之风有点寒...... The Daily Update – A little bit Chile….

穆迪最近将智利的长期评级下调一级至A1(稳定),使其与标准普尔的A+评级一致,比惠誉高出一级。穆迪说:“评级下调反映出智利的信用状况从整体上来看在逐渐地恶化。尽管有明显迹象显示其经济和财政前景近期有所改善,但穆迪并未期待其主权(信誉)将重新获得前几年的水平。”3月份开始任期的塞巴斯蒂安·皮涅拉(Sebastian Pinera)总统并不想为此承担责任,他说:“评级机构的反应归咎于前些年发生的事情,”他补充说,“众所周知,我们的政府正在从根本上解决这些问题。”面对不断增加的公共债务,他还承诺稳定债务水平 — 仅略低于国内生产总值的24%。

穆迪上个月刚刚会见了财政部长菲利普·拉腊因(Felipe Larrain),并表示确实希望智利的经济有所改善,但目前还不清楚它是否足以推动该评级的回升:“债务指标可能趋于稳定,但财政和债务指标的恶化情况发生逆转是不大可能的,”该评级机构补充道:“鉴于中期增长前景比较暗淡,相对于Aa级同行而言的低收入水平,对商品的依赖和外部脆弱性也成为智利信用状况的更为突出的特点。”

从积极的方面来看,穆迪确实注意到了智利的信用优点,包括:“相对较低的政府债务比率和充足的融资渠道......金融资产的积累给财务带来的巨大的灵活性......谨慎的宏观经济和财政政策制定的悠久历史。”根据我们专有的NFA模型,智利被列为三星级,并且预计将在这个范围内持续一段时间,因此它被列入我们的可投资领域。话虽如此,智利的债券很少能够提供非常有吸引力的风险调整后的回报;例如,如果与AA/A评级的中东准主权相比的话。然而,国有铜生产商Codelco债券仍然具有吸引力 — A1评级(最佳评级),(利息)6.15%,2036年到期,收益率为4.7%,预期回报率约为10%,信贷缓冲约为3.5个百分点。

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