每日新闻更新 — 石油和债券 - The Daily Update - Oil and bonds

由于对全球经济衰退的担忧持续存在,过去几周对冲基金似乎看衰更高的油价。西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)原油连续七周下跌,这是自2015年以来最长时间的下跌,布伦特原油价格也略高于4月份的水平。

其原因就在于,市场一直对蔓延在美国跟土耳其之间的裂痕以及中美之间不断加剧的关税冲突忧心忡忡。两国之间的会谈将于本月晚些时候在华盛顿再次展开。由于全球经济衰退的不确定性和风险逐渐被纳入市场定价因素,已经有人在谈论全球经济衰退将导致油价下跌20至30美元。根据商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)的数据,WTI 的对冲基金净多头下跌了9.8%,成为5月份以来的最大跌幅,而且据报道,汽油净多头头寸减少了约14%。

几乎与石油市场担忧相反的是在10年期美国国债中形成的空头。美国商品期货交易委员会报告称,该10年合约中的净空头头寸创下了有记录以来的最高水平。这听上去有点奇怪,因为自7月底以来十年期收益率已下跌约14个基点。

这难道反映了市场对美国债券的潜在需求?这是一个很大的问题,但即使有期货合约在出售,市场价格继续上涨这一事实也有点令人惊讶;如果收益率继续下跌且合约空头触及止损,这可能是一次强势的空头挤压发展形成的。

鉴于标准普尔500指数的交易价格刚好低于今年的高点,债券市场形成的空头以及美元处于一年内的高点,看上去美国资产存在着几分自满,而石油市场在面对经济前景时的态度则是悲观了许多。

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