每日新闻更新 — 英镑不硬了 The Daily Update – Taking a pounding

英镑自从4月份达到高峰以来在这4个月的时间里跌个不停。在昨天的公告之后 — 特蕾莎·梅正计划召开内阁会议,讨论一下没有谈判结果的英国脱欧的前景 — 英镑兑美元汇率在11个多月以来首次跌破1.29。当然,在过去的3-4个月里,货币市场面临更广泛的美元走强,DXY指数从不到90变为95以上。但最值得注意的货币的表现仍然超过了英镑;例如,即使在今天美国对俄罗斯实施新的制裁将卢布推高至66.5以上之后,中国的人民币和俄罗斯的卢布分别比英镑上涨了2%和3%。

就在英格兰银行的马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)发表评论说英国脱欧最终以没有结果而告终的风险“高得有点令人不安”以及国际贸易部长利亚姆·福克斯(Liam Fox)评论说脱欧谈判没有结果的可能性已上升至60%之后不久,英国首相梅的计划的消息就出来了。其他权威人士如全国农民联盟主席米内特·白特斯(Minette Batters)同时警告称,“英国农业部门有可能成为最受英国脱欧影响的部门之一,与欧盟达成无摩擦的自由贸易协议并获得农业企业的可靠和称职的劳动力对该行业的未来至关重要”;他们的研究证明,英国若完全依靠自给自足,那么到2019年8月的时候食品就吃光了。这显然是一个不现实的预测,但它确实凸显了英国食品的安全供应已经怎样和国际社会密不可分了,而且也给了英国卫报一半的读者一点面子 — 他们已经写道,鉴于目前对这个问题的担心,他们已经开始囤积粮食了。

相比之下,仍有一些人,也许很多人(但镇静本身并不出售报纸),仍然相信欧盟和英国议会的理智以及谈判无结果给双方带来的弊端(也许外加埃马纽埃尔·马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)在外交上的领导)足以通过妥协达成协议;或者可能延长第50条规定的若到2019年3月29日不使用就要失效的两年(过渡)期。 目前这似乎仍然是最合理的底线预期:除非你像迈克尔·凯恩(Michael Caine)说的那样“宁愿做一个贫穷的主人,也不愿当一个富有的仆人”,这个结果本身不会让人兴奋;欧盟的官僚做法比人们对经济疲软的担忧更令人诅咒。(“华尔街日报”今天发表了一篇关于欧盟失败的好文章,题为“欧盟花费一大捆银两想把欧洲大陆绑在一起,可是这种方法并不好使”。)


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